NBA - 513 San Antonio Spurs @ 514 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Line: pk line
San Antonio is by far being the best team on this series, no doubt about this. Tonight's game is a great spot for them to win once again and close the series already due to the physical and mental edges that they have over the Grizzlies. The Spurs had a horrible start of Game 3, something incredible for such an experienced team. They committed eight turnovers that led to eight fastbreak points to the Grizzlies. Gregg Popovich benched his whole starting lineup and eventually the lead of the Grizzlies ended up being 29-11! Memphis surprised me by not showing any offensive adjustment on Game 3 and their first quarter was the result of creating points via their defense than via showing a good offensive flow. The Grizzlies ended the game shooting less than 40% FG, something that shows how much they struggled once again in scoring against San Antonio's defense.
After a disastrous first quarter, the Spurs had just nine turnovers on the last 41 minutes of the game. They bounced back with 59% FG and 18 assists on 37 baskets made. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph were competitive dead tired on the fourth quarter. It showed on the defensive rotations in the third quarter, while the smallball that the Grizzlies used at times was especially tough for their Spanish center. Coach Hollins tried to play small, but the Spurs were able to hang around against the new Grizzlies' lineup without problems. Memphis shot really well from the free throw line against Oklahoma City, but they couldn't shoot better than 10-18 (55.6%) FT on Game 3, something that shows the lack of confidence that they were having right now.
I believe that San Antonio's superior depth will make the difference. Memphis looked really tired down the stretch on Game 3 and they need their starters to perform more than the Spurs, who have a good bench full of backup solutions: Manu Ginobili is coming from his best game on the postseason, while Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw are guarding Zach Randolph pretty well. The Spurs are continuing to generate good looks after good looks on offense, even though that can disappear at times as well. The problem is that Memphis is showing no offensive flow on this series at all. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are being well defended and with their perimeter getting pressured to perform well, they are struggling. The bench offers no solutions and even though Quincy Pondexter is bringing some offensive firepower off the bench, his bad defense is also being exposed by the Spurs' backcourt on the other hand.
Looking at all of these, I expect the Spurs to close out the series tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 San Antonio Spurs (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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