MLB - 903 Cincinnati Reds @ 904 New York Mets
(Starting Pitchers: M. Leake vs J. Niese)
Yesterday's game between these two teams had a totals line of 7.5 runs, even though the wind was favorable to the hitters. The score was 3-3 at the end of the 3rd inning, but eventually the game went under the total posted. The fact that teams had a 1-6 and 1-7 on RISP explain why the game went under. It has been rumored that Mike Leake would leave the rotation, but he had a nice outing on his last start with 9 hits and 0 runs allowed in 6.2 innings. However, that game was against Miami, so it was an easy start for Leake. The truth is that he has been quite inconsistent, with his positive outings being against the Phillies, the Cubs twice and Miami, teams that are #27, #13 and #30 on OPS versus RH pitchers this season. The Mets are just #25 OPS against RH pitchers with .687 OPS and just .206 BA on their last 10 games. However, the NY team has a lot of LH hitters who can put Leake in some trouble tonight.
On the other hand, Jonathon Niese had finally a good start and it was at St Louis, where he threw 113 pitches. He had just 4 days of rest prior to tonight's game and the last time he threw +110 pitches, he allowed 7 runs against Atlanta. He is struggling to have some strikeouts and the last time he had more than 3 strikeouts on an outing was at April 6th against Miami! Niese will now face a Reds team loaded with RH batters, while their hitters are Choo, Votto and Bruce! Cincinnati is an elite team against RH pitchers, as they are #5 in the league with .768 OPS! So, it's not a surprise that the Reds' roster is hitting .286 BA and .926 OPS against Niese!
I expect the inconsistent Leake to have some problems tonight, while the Reds should put Niese in a lot of problems as well, so I can expect this contest to be a high scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903/904 Over 8 (w/ M. Leake & J. Niese) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes
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