Projected Line: 203 points
Both teams are exhausted right now. I clearly felt that in Game 4 and of course, the 19-14 outcome in the fourth quarter shows that. Kevin Durant played 47 and 42 minutes on the last two games of this series and more than that, the ball goes into his hands in every possession, so the Rockets are double teaming him, while on the other hand, James Harden is clearly limited and with the Rockets's starters played more than 35 minutes each on the last game. Therefore, I expect some offensive regression from both teams tonight. Oklahoma City's offense is poor without Russell Westbrook. If they were messy with him, without him things only got considerably worse. Coach Scott Brooks can't adjust to anything and so, the Thunder are struggling a lot without their starting PG. Oklahoma City had just 14 and 18 assists on their last two games and nothing changed on the team's style. Scott Brooks simply put Reggie Jackson trying to do what Russell Westbrook does and he actually attempted 18 FGA, taking two more shots than Kevin Durant! The Rockets's defense is being quite smart by double teaming Kevin Durant, in order to force the remaining players to shoot the ball. The problem was that Oklahoma City actually shot quite well in Game 4. Kevin Durant was on fire by making a lot of tough shots, while Derek Fisher was an unexpected big game with 4-5 3pts. However, the Thunder's main problem on offense is the fact that they are being unable to involve their big men on offense. They shot just 6-11 FG at the rim, while shooting 4-6 FG from 10-15 feet, 10-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 11-25 treys! Looking at their poor ball movement, I don't believe the Thunder will be able to replicate such great shooting numbers tonight!
So, the Thunder's mindset for tonight will be clearly on defense. With all the focus on how the Thunder play without Russell Westbrook, Scott Brooks sees the issue for Oklahoma City's lapses being on the defensive end and less about the perception of poor offense.
“The scoring, I feel that we’re going to have enough as we continue to improve in what we do,” Brooks said. “Our scoring is going to be fine. We just have to continue to play defense.”
Unlike the Thunder, Houston had a decent inside game with 44 points in the paint, while Oklahoma City scored just 22 points in that area. Omer Asik was phenomenal with 7-10 FG and all the Rockets's role players had a nice game: Francisco Garcia, Carlos Delfino, Aaron Brooks. But the MVP of Game 4 was Chandler Parsons, who not only had a nice shooting game with 11-21 FG, as he had also 10 rebounds and 8 assists, while defending Kevin Durant! With James Harden being limited, it's tough for Houston to repeat the same offensive rate that they had in Game 4, as their role players are unlikely to be as effective on the road as they were at home on Game 4. The tendency of this series is to see a lot of "hero ball" being played, in a clear sign of lack of game plan and also lack of fresh legs. Therefore, looking at the current high totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 535/536 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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