NBA - 719 San Antonio Spurs @ 720 Golden State Warriors
Projected Line: 199 points
It might be weird, but the Spurs are having problems on offense against the subpar defense of the Warriors. This trend of San Antonio not showing an elite offense is already coming from the regular season, so it's not that much of a surprise that they are struggling on offense right now. Andrew Bogut is doing a good job in defending Tim Duncan down low and the truth is that Duncan is only being efficient on his mid-range jumpers. With Klay Thompson defending Tony Parker, the French guard of the Spurs is showing once again that he doesn't feel comfortable against taller opponents guarding him and that has been evident during this series. San Antonio is one of the best passing teams in the league, but they managed to dish just 14 assists on the Game 2 of this series. So, they need to known down their outside shots, but the problem is that their role players are struggling, just like it happened in last year's playoffs.
The big news for tonight's game is that San Antonio will adjust on defense. The Spurs got crushed by the Warriors' small ball on Game 2, however it's important to note that coach Popovich was able to adjust on the second half of that game by playing small ball as well.
“We were lacking the focus, the intensity, whatever you want to call it. That put us in a hole,” Tim Duncan said. “That second quarter really killed us. I don’t know what to say about it, honestly. We got a crew in there that found a little bit of rhythm defensively and started making stops,” he continued. “It was a good third quarter. The fourth quarter we just didn’t have enough gas to get back into it.”
Klay Thompson was only able to make one trey during the 2nd half, after having made seven in the first half! The Spurs managed to make better close outs on the shooters during the second half thanks to that. We can expect Popovich to do the same tonight, unless Tiago Splitter is back at 100% physically and with that, Popovich may decide to use both Splitter and Duncan together on the frontcourt. But if that happens, San Antonio become an elite defensive team immediately and so, the Warriors' offense will struggle tonight either way. It's also important to mention that Golden State's offensive execution during the fourth quarters is simply awful! They show bad clock management, they burn the clock too much and they eventually take some bad shots. That happened in the first two games of this series, it happened during the series against Denver and so, I expect it to happen tonight as well. Therefore, thanks to all these facts, I expect a relatively low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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