Projected Line: 181 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This series changed its style the moment when Atlanta changed its starting lineup by inserting Johan Petro at the Center position. With Petro playing 20 minutes per game, the Hawks naturally lost its speed edge over the Pacers's starting lineup. Even though Atlanta has been able to score double digits fast break points in every game of this series (14-17-14-11-10), if we look at their PPP (points per possession) on transitions, we get a different story: 1.23, 1.09, 0.75, 0.67 and 0.92 PPP! Since Atlanta started using a big lineup on Game 3, their effectiveness on transitions decreased considerably. Their offensive rating in these three games were 98, 114 and 95, so the only game where they managed to have a decent offensive game was on Game 4, where Indiana had a stupid overreaction on defense. Atlanta had a blowout win on Game 3 due to Al Horford's huge game and a nice all-around game from Josh Smith, so suddenly the Pacers decided to give an extra look on these two players and this allowed Atlanta to shoot 11-24 on 3pts, with Kyle Korver shooting 5-8 3pts and Anthony Tolliver 3-3 3pts!
Game 5 was some kind of back to basics from Indiana on defense and of course, Atlanta's offense immediately struggled to score with their big lineup. I believe the same thing will happen tonight on Game 6. Atlanta's big men have no intention of trying to have an edge down low, where they shot 9-16 FG and 10-14 FG at the rim on the last two games of the series. Their big lineup is on court to try to avoid the edge Indiana's frontcourt has on their offense. First of all, Indiana's offense completely renounced to their transition game on Game 5 by scoring just 6 fast break points. After 12.10%, 9.30%, 11.00%, 12.80% volume of transition plays on the first four games of this series, Indiana's transition volume on Game 5 was just 5.10%! Atlanta wants to avoid at any cost Indiana to pound them down low and they prevented that from happening on Game 5, as the Pacers shot just 13-18 FG at the rim. That's a considerable different to the first two games of the series, where Indiana shot 25-32 FG and 18-30 FG at the rim.
Indiana managed to score especially via free throws with 29-35 FT and with a decent outside shooting game with 7-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-19 3pts! However, Indiana is super inconsistent on their perimeter shooting, especially on the road, so I don't expect them to repeat such numbers at all tonight. The key factor on Game 5 was Josh Smith being on foul trouble and so, he played just 26 minutes. He is defending Paul George on this series, who with Josh on foul trouble, took advantage of that to have a big game with 7-8 FG. 5-7 FT, 21 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists! With Indiana having a good defense and with their natural offensive letdown tonight against an improved and bigger Hawks defense, I believe this game will be a well-fought low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 547/548 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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