(Starting Pitchers: Z. McAllister vs R. Dempster)
Cleveland will start Zach McAllister tonight, who has been having some luck on his games, as even though he has a season ERA of 2.65, his 4.17 FIP and 4.50 xFIP shows that some regression is quite likely to happen soon. He is coming from a decent outing against Seattle, one of the worst teams in the league this season in hitting versus RH pitchers (#26 with .681 OPS). However, he had just one strikeout and his game logs weren't great at all: 2.45 ERA, but 4.94 FIP and 5.32 xFIP! He will now face the Red Sox, who are #1 in the league in hitting against RH pitchers with a great .807 OPS! McAllister has already faced Boston this season and he had to throw 112 pitches just to make it to the 5th inning! He allowed 3 runs in that outing, while walking three batters as well. He is a flyball pitcher with a 41% FB% and with the wind blowing out to left field at 10-20 mph, I expect him to really struggle tonight.
On the other side, Ryan Dempster is coming from a huge pitch count on his last outing: 127 pitches in just 4.2 innings! He had just 4 days of rest prior to this game, so this is really a poor spot for him! He had a FIP higher than 6.00 on his last two outings, so it seems clear that Dempster is struggling right now. If we exclude a game where they faced Max Scherzer and the Tigers, Cleveland's offense has been excellent lately and so, I expect them to pound Dempster tonight. Therefore, I expect a very high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907/908 Over 9,5 (w/ Z. McAllister & R. Dempster) @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline
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