NBA - 543 Denver Nuggets @ 544 Golden State Warriors
Projected Line: Denver by 2 points
I've read some comparison between tonight's game and the Game 6 of the Warriors/Mavericks series in 2007, where Golden State crushed Dallas and won the series that night. I expect things to be different tonight. On the last game of this series, Denver played like they should always play against Golden State, with a big lineup, grabbing 55% of the rebounds and having a 50-24 edge at the paint. It's tough to separate their good spot in Game 5 from the improvements from the lineup changes, but I saw the Nuggets to defend rather well during the second half of the regular season and attacking the rim like they should. The Warriors came back at the end on Game 5 because Denver tried to play small again with Andre Miller and Ty Lawson on the backcourt.
Denver's main problem has been Kenneth Faried's defense, who seems to be lost all the time around the court trying to defend Harrison Barnes, who has been very good from the 3pts line, even though he is a rookie and still quite raw. On the other hand, Denver defended Stephen Curry better with Andre Iguodala and Ty Lawson, but what was the most interesting was the Warriors's new mindset. Take a look at their volume of isolation plays throughout the series: 8.60%, 12.30%, 19.80%, 23.80%, 22.90%! Over the last three games, their ISO ball has been around 20%, close to the level of the Knicks!
The main issue for the Warriors tonight might be Andrew Bogut, who tweaked his ankle in Game 5. Bogut was able to go through a light workout yesterday despite tweaking the ankle, so while we don't think it's a serious concern, it's always worth noting when it comes to Bogut's surgically-repaired ankle. He was ineffective in his 18 minutes in Game 5 and the Warriors will need more from him on tonight's game. With Bogut being limited, Denver will have a huge edge on rebounds over the Warriors. After three games where the Warriors surprisingly outrebounded the Nuggets, Denver grabbed 56.71% and 54.38% of the rebounds on the last two games of the series! Not only the Nuggets are winning the boards battle, as they are consequently creating second chance points plus limiting the Warriors's offensive flow. I see Denver having more chances to win tonight than the Warriors and so, I'll be taking the Nuggets in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 543 Denver Nuggets (+2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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