Projected Line: 183 points
Oklahoma City's defense will have a matchup on this series that will adequate to the personnel they have. They are coming from a series against Houston, where they were facing a team that was playing with three guards, a SF and a Center, a tough lineup for the Thunder to guard, as they have two legitimate big players. On this new series, Oklahoma City's defense will be much more comfortable with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins have natural opponents in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. The Thunder had an elite post up defense in the regular season (#3 in the league with 0.77 PPP), but that was useless in the series against the Rockets, as Houston's volume of post ups throughout the series were 4.30%, 0.80%, 1.00%, 4.70%, 3.00% and 5.00%! Now against the post-oriented Grizzlies, Oklahoma City should be able to put their post up defense to good use, as Memphis had a 4.10%, 18.00%, 15.90%, 21.40%, 23.80% and 21.80% of volume in post ups on their series against the Clippers.
On the other hand, with just 1 day off to rest, Oklahoma City won't be able to perform an offensive miracle in here. They will use the same old stuff, with no major adjustments. The Thunder had nice offensive rates against Houston: 120.98, 112.11, 110.32, 111.76, 109.28 and 117.85. But they were facing the Rockets, who are a poor defensive team (#18 on defensive rating during the regular season) and they gave up on defending down low after Game 1 by playing with four backcourt players in the lineup. Things will be very different against Memphis. The dependence that Oklahoma City has on Kevin Durant will be very noticeable throughout this series, as Memphis will use both Tayshaun Prince and Tony Allen to defend him and with the team help, they will suffocate Oklahoma City's offense, who doesn't have a good ball movement. Even though the series between the Thunder and the Rockets were full of fast paced games, Oklahoma City was only able to dish 14, 18, 20 and 21 in four of the six games of the series! While the Grizzlies were focused on Chris Paul on the series against the Clippers, they will do the same thing today but with Kevin Durant this time. I expect both teams to have good defensive performances today and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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