MLB - 963 Philadelphia Phillies @ 964 Boston Red Sox
(Starting Pitchers: C. Lee vs R. Dempster).
Yesterday's game between these two teams was a slugfest, with both teams hitting above .300 BA and with the game ending with 12 runs. However, I expect things to be different today and so, I believe this will be a low scoring contest. Cliff Lee has been amazing lately by allowing 0, 2, 0 and 2 earned runs on his last four starts, while his command has been quite good as well. He threw 115 pitches on his last outing, but as he had 5 days to rest prior to tonight's game, I expect him to be rested today. Boston's offense has been super well lately, but the truth is that they do most damage against RH pitchers where they lead the league. However, they are much worse against LH pitchers like Lee by being just #16 in the league with .699 OPS!
So, the key in here will be how Ryan Dempster will perform tonight, as he has been struggling lately. Dempster's pitch counts are getting quite high early on the games and he hasn't reach the fifth inning on his last three outings. However, Dempster has a great 10.83 K/9 ratio this season and this matchup against the Phillies will actually favor him deeply. Philadelphia has a 47.0% swing rate (#9 in the league) and 49.1% (#3) over the past two weeks. This means that Philadelphia's lineup will give a lot of opportunities to Dempster to strike them out. Also note that Dempster's three outings, where he struggled the most, were against Cleveland (#29 in swing rate), Minnesota (#25) and Toronto (#23), three opponents that actually made Dempster work a lot on each inning. This won't happen tonight with Philadelphia and so, I expect Dempster to bounce back tonight.
With both Lee and Dempster having great matchups tonight, I expect his contest to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963/964 Under 8 (w/ C. Lee & R. Dempster) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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