Projected Line: 178 points
We took the Under on the Game 2 with the expectations that teams would have an offensive letdown after an overtime game in Game 1, but that didn't happen. However, there were some facts that validate what I wrote on that writeup of my Game 2 pick. The game pace was much slower than on Game 1 and both defenses played very well. The problem was that this game was one of those games were good defenses were outplayed by even better offenses! Both teams hit some tough contested shots, as note that after having 24 assists on Game 1, the Heat had just 14 assists on Game 2 but still shot 46.6% FG. On the other side, Indiana had 18 assists on Game 2 (they had 20 on Game 1), but they still shot 50% FG even though just 54% of their shots made were assisted!
But the majority of Game 2 was conditioned by some bad refereeing. Fouls were called everywhere as usual as Scott Foster was on court, but the truth is that both teams got into the bonus really early on the quarters, something that affected the whole rhythm of the game, especially on the second quarter that had 31 FT attempts! Indiana scored 53 points in the first half mostly due to the fact that they had 21 FT attempts, while Miami was so obsessed in forcing turnovers with hard traps on the ball handlers that they forgot to defend down low. Indiana took advantage of that with some sharp passes, with Roy Hibbert having a great game with 10-15 FG, 9-10 FT and 6 offensive rebounds! This was also why Indiana shot 6-10 FG on pick and roll roll man for a great 1.33 PPP! On the other side, Miami's role players were well defended and it looked like Lebron James was still in Cleveland, as he had to do everything on his own! Miami had a smart approach with Lebron on the second half by playing him off curls for several possessions and Lebron ended up making the right decisions in almost every single time.
Just like it happened on Game 1, both teams could have won Game 2. With the game tied at 93, Indiana scored the last four points of the game via free throw for a great 4-4 FT down the stretch. This was the key on this game, as not only Indiana attempted 32 free throws, as they made 26 of them, while Miami shot just 18-26 (69.2%) FT!
Tonight I'll be taking the Under once again after what I watched on Game 2! The Heat had offensive rates of 105.2 and 108.3 on the first two games of the series, something that shows how well Indiana is defending Miami on this series. The Heat's perimeter shooters are being well guarded, the close outs are being tremendously well done by Indiana and with the Pacers guarding Lebron 1*1 in almost every time, James will always have monster game, but just like it was seen on Game 2, this isn't enough for Miami. The Heat had just 14 assists on Game 2, after averaging 23.2 assists on their previous 10 playoff games!
On the other side, I expect Miami to play better defense tonight. They won't gamble as much on the perimeter just to force turnovers because with one or two passes, the Heat gets quickly exposed down low with that. I also believe the referees are a decisive role for Game 2 to go over the total posted, with too many free throws and especially with Chris Anderson in foul trouble, who eventually only played 15 minutes in that game, something that caused problems on the Heat's defense. Besides that, I don't believe both teams will make so many contested shots like they did in Game 2. For example, I don't expect Miami to hit two buzzer beats tonight like they did on Game 2!
0:00 53-47 Mike Miller makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lebron James assists)
0:00 End of the 2nd Quarter
0:00 76-74 Lebron James makes 29-foot three point jumper
0:00 End of the 3rd Quarter
Therefore, I expect a low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 182 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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