Projected Line: 181 points
The Game 4 of this series was the slowest game of the playoffs so far with a 79.39 pace factor! In fact, the pace on this series has been getting slower and slower: 87.85, 84.25, 83.37 and 79.39! The playing style of both teams suggests that the pace will remain slow in the future of this series, as Miami doesn't want to run like crazy on this series in order to avoid turnovers that can easily become quick transitions for the Pacers. They are being patient, they are working well on halfcourt by using Lebron James at the post and that has been working, as after 21 and 15 turnovers in the first two games of the series, the Heat committed just 5 and 6 turnovers on the last two games of this series! On the other side, Indiana is also wanting to play really slow, as they want to look for the better spots to put the ball down low on Roy Hibbert or David West. So, this is why the games on this series are being played are getting even slower with the time.
The truth is that Indiana has been incredibly efficient on the offense and always on an non-conventional way. A lot of their possessions have been ugly and they result in bad shots, but Indiana is compensating that with insane rebound rates: 52.75%, 53.51%, 59.66% and 59.68%! These rebounds are resulting in second chance points and especially in free throws. The Pacers averaged 28.6 FT/game against Atlanta and 29.3 FT/game against the NY Knicks, but they are now averaging 35.25 FT/game against Miami! It's also unquestionable that Indiana has a huge edge on this series on down low with Roy Hibbert and David West in post up plays: 1.07, 0.90 and 1.00 PPP on the last three games of the season!
On Game 4, an offensive letdown from Miami was expected and it happened. They scored 70 points on the first half of Game 3, but on Game 4 they needed three quarters to score 70 points. Indiana's defense had to choose between doing better close outs down low to Haslem / Birdman or put more pressure on the outside, especially on pick and roll ball handler plays. Their option was clear: they tried to avoid easy points down low. After allowing 52 points in the paint on Game 3, Indiana allowed just 32 points in the paint on Game 4! On the other side, Miami had good numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays with 7-15 FG and 1.11 PPP, a clear improvement from 0.46, 0.88 and 0.90 PPP from the three previous games of the series. Indiana will have to choose once again tonight to make an extra effort on their interior defense or at the perimeter, but looking at their results on Game 3 and Game 4, I believe coach Vogel's option is easy to guess.
Given the pace of this series and taking in account the offensive approach of both teams, I have no doubt that tonight's game will be another slow paced contest. Indiana has been having insane offensive ratings: 117.4, 117.2 and 125.0! However, the way they have been super effective on offense isn't sustainable in the future, as they are being good on offense via offensive rebounds and free throws, not from a good shot selection on their backcourt. Miami's offense was limited by an excellent Indiana's defense on Game 4, after a crazy good Game 3. The Pacers' approach for tonight will be the same: prevent easy points down low!
The refereeing on Game 4 was pretty questionable: a lot of flopping and some fines were applied, including to Lebron James! Therefore, I expect the ref crew for tonight to allow the players to be more physical than usual and don't have the approach that the referees have been showing on this series with a lot of tight calls that even made Lebron James being fouled out! With a slow pace and with the refs not being tight on foul calling, both teams will have to put some monster offensive numbers for this game to go Over the total posted. Therefore, I expect this series to see finally one of its games to go Under the total posted and so, I'll be taking it in here.
NOTE: This line is currently available at Bovada. The public is currently pounding the Over, so it's likely that the line will get even better for us as gametime approaches!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519/520 Under 186 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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