NBA - 551 Los Angeles Clippers @ 552 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Line: Memphis by 9 points
As I mentioned on my writeup on Game 5, Memphis have correctly set the right rotations for this series. Quincy Pondexter is being a defensive factor, with Jerryd Bayless having less minutes due to his defensive problems. The Clippers have a big problem now with Blake Griffin being clearly limited with an ankle injury. If he was struggling while healthy to matchup with Zach Randolph, he is now getting completely crushed by Randolph. With Griffin completely limited, the Clippers don't have any other frontcourt player with decent offensive skills. DeAndre Jordan can just dunk, same goes for Ronny Turiaf and Ryan Hollins. Lamar Odom has been more skill on offense, but he has absolutely no chance of defending Randolph. This is dramatic for the Clippers, as Memphis's defense can now focus on the perimeter, an area where their elite defense excels. Memphis has been defending Chris Paul 1*1, but he was still able to have an amazing performance on Game 5, with 11-24 FG, 35 points and 11-11 FT, but Memphis is more worried in shutting down the remaining players, while turning Chris Paul into a pure scorer and not a playmaker. This is why Paul had just 4 assists in the previous games of this season.
The Clippers have been having great numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays (0.94, 1.13, 0.53, 1.22, 1.18 PPP), but the Grizzlies's defense is more concerned in shutting down the Clippers on spot ups and they have been doing exactly that by allowing just 0.92, 0.64, 0.75, 0.46 and 0.55 PPP throughout the series! The Clippers's perimeter shooting was only decent on Game 1, as in the remaining games, the Clippers shot just a combined of 21-76 (27.6%) 3pts! Besides the fact that Memphis knows how to stop the Clippers's offense, the Grizzlies are also now outrebounding the LA team by allowing the Clippers to grab just 38.69%, 38.70% and 48.33% of the rebounds on the last three games of this series. On offense, both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have been pounding the Clippers's frontcourt on the down low quite easily, something that also offers extra space to their teammates on the backcourt. We have every condition to think that the Grizzlies are going to close out the series tonight with an easy win and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 552 Memphis Grizzlies (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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