Projected Line: 186 points
The Pacers proved in game 1 that they will be a tough out for the Knicks and we easily cashed the spread with them. I’ve watched the game and I was surprised of how easy it was for both offenses to create easy looks and that’s why I’m playing the Over in Game 2.
Indiana attacked the mismatch David West vs. Carmelo Anthony quite well as West had a team high 20 points w/ 8-15 FG, one of their problems against the Knicks in the regular season games was that they held the ball too much in the post and the Knicks perimeter guys quickly doubled the “Pacers bigs” who couldn’t make the right decisions = Turnovers. In Game 1, the Pacers committed 16 TO’s but still it was far from the L2 h2h games in which Indiana committed 21 and 26 TO’s.
Because the Knicks are playing with Prigioni and/or Kidd, the Pacers can play DJ Augustin as he can defend those players who really don’t offer any danger when the Knicks have the ball while he can stretch the floor on the offensive end for the Pacers and benefit from the fact that Knicks have to double the Pacers big players down low.
On the other side, it was nice to see the Knicks offense having just 13.9 vol% of Isolation plays against the Pacers in G1. Note that they averaged almost 27% vol% against the Celtics in the previous round so the Knicks moved the ball quite well against the best defensive team in the league.
The biggest weakness of this Pacers defense is their defense in P&R’s and Felton enjoyed a big game w/ Knicks having 10-25 FG 0.83 PPP numbers in P&R BH’s plays. I expect the Knicks to attack more in this area while Anthony and JR Smith will shoot better tonight in my opinion.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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