Saturday, May 11, 2013

NBA 05/11 Free Premium Play: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies

  
Oklahoma City  at Memphis 
NBA - 721 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 722 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: Memphis by 8 points


Even though the Game 2 of this series was 90-89 for Memphis with 2 minutes to go, I have the feeling that Memphis was superior to Oklahoma City in every aspect of the game. The key for all of these is the impressive domination of the Grizzlies down low with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph over Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka. Both players of the Grizzlies' frontcourt easily win position down low, especially Randolph, with Gasol also using his good mid-range shooting and great passing to dominate the Thunder. This is why he had 4-8 FG from 16-23 feet and 5 assists in Game 2, something great for a center. Offensively, Memphis is able to generate good looks, they don't commit errors with just 11 turnovers, while they also crush the offensive glass with 16 offensive boards and down low with 50 points in the paint and 19-32 (60%) FG at the rim. They only struggled on offense because of their outside shooting with 7-22 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-15 treys. However, the Grizzlies were able to constantly create good looks constantly, something that doesn't happen with Oklahoma City.

The Thunder's offense is so limited right now in terms of ball movement. Kevin Durant gets the ball, he dribbles, uses a pick and roll and then shoots or passes. The problem is that he isn't Lebron James with a super passing game and this is why he committed 5 turnovers on the last game of this series. The problem is that Kendrick Perkins is a zero on offense, Serge Ibaka looks physiological conditioned by Zach Randolph and of course the Thunder isn't able to generate good looks on offense on this series. This is why they had only 17 assists on Game 2, when they had just 13 in Game 1. They also only scored 30 points in the paint with 8-14 FG at the rim. The only edge that the Thunder has is that Kevin Durant is showing his phenomenal shooting skills. But thanks to this, he can barely rest during the games and so, he played 43 minutes in Game 2. The bench actually did a decent job when Durant was on the bench, but I doubt that will happen two times in a row.

Coach Hollins is insisting to use both Mike Conley and Jerryd Bayless on the backcourt. Bayless is a poor defender and he has let Derek Fisher on his own at times during this series, but I expect things to be better for Memphis tonight, as they had time to adjust to this little things. The Grizzlies are by far the better team on this series and so, I expect them to pick an easy home win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Memphis Grizzlies (-5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

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