NBA - 509 San Antonio Spurs @ 510 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Lines: 183 points | Memphis by 2 points
Both teams had very inconsistent performances on this game. San Antonio had some phases of pure offensive domination, where their baskets would be the result of good looks, with no contested shots. On Game 1, they dished 28 assists for 40 FG made and on this game, they had 29 assists and 36 FG made for an absurd 80.5 A/rate%! The Spurs were superb in passing the ball: drive and kicks to the shooters, great passes for the open frontcourt player on pick and rolls, you name it! So, no wonder that San Antonio shot 9-10 FG 1.82 PPP on cuts and 11-22 FG 1.33 PPP on spot ups, after having had 15-27 and 1.50 PPP on spot ups on Game 1! The problem for the Spurs was that they struggled on keeping their focus in some moments. Their offense went awol and they couldn't score a single point on the last 4:24 of the first quarter and they scored just 2 points on the last 8:11 of the fourth quarter! If we add these two periods, it was like the Spurs scored just 2 points for a whole quarter!
Memphis tried since early on to put Zach Randolph in evidence on the game, in such a way that their offense lost all its flow. Mike Conley got in early foul trouble and he is the key for his team's offense. But the truth is that Memphis ended up having way better numbers on post ups (17% volume and 0.65 PPP) on Game 2, after having just 11% volume and 0.33 PPP on Game 1. Memphis's starting lineup has been struggling on offense, as Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince bring no threat on the perimeter with their poor shooting, especially Prince who shot 9-31 FG on the last 5 games! San Antonio's defense can then focus on Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, so if one of Prince or Allen is on court brings an edge to the Spurs' defense, let alone when both are on court at the same time! This is why Coach Hollins made a great adjustment: he benched Prince, who played just 16 minutes on Game 2! Quincy Pondexter played on Prince's position for 37 minutes, something that gives thew Grizzlies a much bigger threat on the mid-range shooting to the Grizzlies. In fact, the Grizzlies had their best moment on Game 2 when they presented the following lineup: Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Quincy Pondexter, Jerryd Bayless and Mike Conley! I believe the Grizzlies will continue insisting on this lineup to try to be competitive on this series.
On the other side, Tim Duncan was limited due to foul trouble on Game 2 and he played just 31 minutes. But during that span, San Antonio outscored Memphis by 22 points! On the other side, Mike Conley was also limited to 35 minutes due to foul trouble, but with him on court, the Grizzlies outscored the Spurs by 1 point! It would have been interesting to check the final score of this game if these two players hadn't been in foul trouble!
Now onto tonight's game. There was a 3 days span between the Game 2 and 3 of this series and this is unusual. The long rest will benefit both offenses, as their best players will come with fresh legs. I quickly remember that Tony Parker had these extra days for example to heal his calf injury. I referred that on Game 2, Memphis would be more concerned on making defensive adjustments as they didn't have time between the Games 1 and 2 of this series to make offensive adjustments. But for tonight's Game 3, I expect Memphis to show some new adjustments on their tactics, especially in being more effective in putting the ball on Zach Randolph down low. I expect the Grizzlies to be much more aggressive at home and therefore this will give them more free throw attempts! Memphis had just 6 FT attempts on the first half of Game 2, just to have 14 attempts only on the third quarter! This was the key for the Grizzlies to score 33 points on that quarter! They eventually had a total of 20 FT attempts on the second half. The Grizzlies are attempting 32.2 FT/game at home on these playoffs, while they have just 27.8 FT/game on the road, so I expect them to indeed come quite aggressive on their first home game of this series.
The fact that the backcourt lineup formed by Mike Conley, Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter worked so well on Game 2 will make Hollins insert this lineup really soon on tonight's game if the Grizzlies' staring unit starts showing offensive struggles once again. Mike Conley was in foul trouble on Game 2, but on the 35 minutes that he played, he was able to produce a remarkable 117 offensive rating, while being the only starter that attempts some treys: 2-5! If we combine all these factors, then Memphis has all the conditions to have a better overall offensive game that they had on the first two games of this series, as I even doubt that the Grizzlies will shoot once again 2-12 FG on offensive rebound plays!
The problem for the Grizzlies is that San Antonio's offense has been a legit threat on this series. They dished 28 and 29 assists on the first two games of this series, something that shows the clear amount of good looks that the Spurs are having on this series. A rested Tony Parker is playing at a MVP level and San Antonio is more than ready to explore Memphis's problems on pick and roll defense, especially with the lack of speed from Zach Randolph. San Antonio's role players are all confident and they are also shooting well right now. Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw are all showing good flow and they aren't hiding themselves from the game. On a rested spot like this one, I expect San Antonio to be super competitive, as even though Memphis will improve their offensive performance tonight, San Antonio's great ball movement will generate a lot of good looks that will certainly create points for them. The Spurs are 4-1 SU & ATS on the road on this postseason, with their only loss being at overtime, so I expect the Spurs to be competitive once again tonight, on a surprisingly relatively high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking both San Antonio and the Over tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 178.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 San Antonio Spurs (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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