Thursday, May 16, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 05/16: Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks

  
Indiana  at New York 
NBA - 739 Indiana Pacers @ 740 New York Knicks

Projected Line: 184 points


Coach Mike Woodson tried in the Game 5 of this series to beat Indiana at their own game by going big with Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin in the starting lineup. That lineup was used to limit Indiana's superior athleticism down low. In part that worked as Indiana's frontcourt players weren't able to get big offensive numbers: Roy Hibbert shot 2-8 FG and David West 3-9 FG! Indiana had a high volume of post up plays in the first three games of this series, but they had a volume of just 10% on Game 4, with just 0.60 PPP and 3-9 FG on those. The problem for the Knicks is that they weren't able to avoid that Indiana dominated the boards battle with 16 offensive rebounds and almost 60% of the total rebounds. But the worst problem for the NY team was that this lineup crushed the Knicks' offensive flow and if it's normally hard for them to score against the league's best defense, it would got even tougher with the Knicks showing no spread offense and with them using two post players who don't have good offensive skills.

It looks like Mike Woodson will be back to their original game plan tonight and he is even considering expanding Chris Copeland's minutes to spread the floor more, in order to move Roy Hibbert from his natural spot down low. I expect this to not only help the Knicks' offense to improve tonight, but on the other side David West will have a huge size edge against Carmelo Anthony. With the referees being foul prone, I expect this game to have the best offensive flow of this series and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 739/740 Over 181 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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