Projected Line: 178 points
The Game 1 of this series was a very intense one as expected, where the Pacers went toe to toe without problems against the Heat. It was curious to see how both teams weren't able to take advantage of their supposed edges that they would have against this opponent: Indiana had a rebound rate of just 52.7% with 17 offensive boards, but they allowed on the other hand the Heat to grab a remarkable 16 offensive boards on their own! At the same time, the Heat's ball pressure on defense was supposed to create problems to Indiana's poor ball handling skills and indeed that happened, as Indiana committed 20 turnovers that resulted in 22 points for Miami. The problem was that the Heat was sloppy as well by committing 21 turnovers of their own!
Miami knows how tough it will be to get good clean looks from the outside on this series and they shot just 5-18 3pts. These five treys made was lowest mark of the Heat on these postseason so far. However, Miami's gameplan was a good one and it worked all game long: attack the rim with Lebron James, Dwyane Wade or even Norris Cole, expect Indiana's big man to come clog the lane and then a new Heat player would make a cut to the basket and receive the ball. This is why Miami had a terrific 10-12 FG 1.57 PPP stellar mark on cuts! The majority of those plays were converted by Chris Anderson, who was amazing with 7-7 FG and 3 offensive rebounds, while also getting three shots blocked! On the other side, Indiana attacked pretty well the edge that David West has against really everybody of the Heat to pound then down low. The Pacers' backcourt struggled as expected due to Miami's pressure, but at least they were active in all facets of the game.
But what everybody is talking about is the decision of coach Frank Vogel to leave Roy Hibbert in the bench on the final play of the game. This might look like a really bad decision at first sight, but we have to take in account that Hibbert looked really tired on overtime and on almost three straight defensive possessions he got beaten by Anderson on the glass by allowing him to grab an offensive rebound, then he got beaten on a post up play (!) and finally, he was also outmatched by Bosh on an offensive board that resulted on a 2+1 play! Perhaps this was why Hibbert got benched on the final play of the game.
Now onto the Game 2 of this series. I believe we have value on the Under in here even though the totals line is lower than it was on Game 1. The first game of this series was very intense, with the game going into overtime. Indiana's starters all played over 41 minutes, while on the other side, Lebron James played 47 minutes and Dwyane Wade played 41 minutes even though he has a sore knee. He was still able to have an excellent game with 9-15 FG, 5 assists, 3 steals and 1 block, but the physical consequences for tonight's game are obvious. With Wade struggling to replicate tonight what he did on Game 1, Indiana's defense will be able to focus even more in stopping Lebron. Indiana's close outs on the perimeter were excellent in Game 1 and they only struggled in defending Miami's cuts to the basket. If Miami had merit in some of them, Indiana's sloppy off ball defense on Game 1 won't happen tonight once again and so, I believe the Pacers' cuts defense will be better tonight.
Due to the great ball pressure of the Heat on Game 1, Indiana's offense ended up struggling. Only the Pacers' big men played well: David West shot 11-17 FG, Roy Hibbert 9-18 FG and even Tyler Hansbrough shot 5-8 FG! However Indiana shot just 6-14 FG 0.78 PPP on post ups! Their major damage was on offensive boards, where they were excellent with 8-11 FG and 1.38 PPP! Possibly Chris Anderson will play more minutes tonight, as he seems more effective on defense than Shane Battier on this series. Indiana was super aggressive on the offensive end with 32 FT attempts and 17 offensive rebounds, but with heavy legs tonight, they won't be able to repeat such stellar numbers. When the Pacers aren't aggressive on offense, they turn into an offensive disaster as previous seen on these playoffs.
Therefore, I expect this contest to be a really low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 182 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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