MLB - 965 Miami Marlins @ 966 Tampa Bay Rays
(Starting Pitchers: K. Slowey vs J. Hellickson)
I believe Kevin Slowey will have a tough time tonight against the Rays. He is an extreme flyball pitcher with a 42.3% FB% vs 30.3% GB% and of course his worst starts of the season are the ones where he allowed homeruns like against Arizona or at LA against the Dodgers. Tampa Bay is #3 in the league on FB% with 38.6% and their offense has been improving as the season goes by and they are hitting .275 BA on their last 10 games against RH pitchers! Therefore, I expect Slowey to have a lot of problems tonight.
On the other hand, Jeremy Hellickson has been quite unlucky this season with a 5.37 ERA, but with a 4.64 FIP and 4.20 xFIP! Homeruns have been his biggest problem this season, but the truth is that Miami is dead last in the league on HR/FB rate with just 3.9%! Hellickson is coming from a start at Toronto, where he allowed just two earned runs in eight innings. If we consider how red hot the Blue Jays have been this season, this was definitely a great start for Hellickson! Now against one of the worst offenses in the league, I expect him to have another dominant outing tonight.
Therefore, I expect Slowey to struggle and Hellickson to dominate, so I expect an easy win for Tampa Bay tonight. I'm taking them tonight on the runline.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (w/ J. Hellickson) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes
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