Projected Line: 198 points
The Spurs won Game 5 behind a stellar offensive performance with an offensive rate of 126.2 and I don’t think the Warriors will be able to slow them down tonight. Tony Parker looked limited in Game 4 due to a calf injury, but he was back in Game 5 while taking advantage of the Warriors' bad defense on pick and rolls and the fact that he faced Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack in several offensive possessions: he went 9-16 FG, 7-10 FT, 25 points and 10 assists! For tonight I expect Parker to be aggressive once again and most likely the Warriors' defense will collapse to contain him. The problem is that the Spurs' “role players” are looking more confident and they are knocking down their shots (Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green combined to shoot 13-18 from the field!). The improved ball movement was well noticed for me as the Spurs notched 30 assists on 40 field goals, an 75 percent assist rate. Only Tim Duncan wasn’t able to hit his mid range shots, but it was an overall impressive performance. The Warriors had no choice but to give Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack major minutes on the floor together and this is something that the Spurs will explore.
The key factor for me is what the Warriors' offense will do tonight. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson struggled in Game 5 by shooting just 6-22 FG! They looked tired since the start, something normal as they have been playing huge minutes in all games and because the game was decided relatively early, with both playing less than 40 minutes. We can expect them to be more aggressive tonight. Coach Mark Jackson is determined to play small ball as the idea of pairing Andrew Bogut with Festus Ezeli is now dead. The Spurs are putting a concerted effort to shut down GSW’s 3pts shots, but the Warriors, especially with Curry is finding the right teammates down low for some easy points. The 40-points in the paint mark in Game 5 was the 2nd best mark for GSW in this series (they scored 52 in the first game!). I think the Warriors will be ready for a similar Spurs defensive game plan for tonight and will torch the Spurs down low.
I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch in an offensive perspective and that’s why I’m taking the Over in here.
The Spurs won Game 5 behind a stellar offensive performance with an offensive rate of 126.2 and I don’t think the Warriors will be able to slow them down tonight. Tony Parker looked limited in Game 4 due to a calf injury, but he was back in Game 5 while taking advantage of the Warriors' bad defense on pick and rolls and the fact that he faced Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack in several offensive possessions: he went 9-16 FG, 7-10 FT, 25 points and 10 assists! For tonight I expect Parker to be aggressive once again and most likely the Warriors' defense will collapse to contain him. The problem is that the Spurs' “role players” are looking more confident and they are knocking down their shots (Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green combined to shoot 13-18 from the field!). The improved ball movement was well noticed for me as the Spurs notched 30 assists on 40 field goals, an 75 percent assist rate. Only Tim Duncan wasn’t able to hit his mid range shots, but it was an overall impressive performance. The Warriors had no choice but to give Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack major minutes on the floor together and this is something that the Spurs will explore.
The key factor for me is what the Warriors' offense will do tonight. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson struggled in Game 5 by shooting just 6-22 FG! They looked tired since the start, something normal as they have been playing huge minutes in all games and because the game was decided relatively early, with both playing less than 40 minutes. We can expect them to be more aggressive tonight. Coach Mark Jackson is determined to play small ball as the idea of pairing Andrew Bogut with Festus Ezeli is now dead. The Spurs are putting a concerted effort to shut down GSW’s 3pts shots, but the Warriors, especially with Curry is finding the right teammates down low for some easy points. The 40-points in the paint mark in Game 5 was the 2nd best mark for GSW in this series (they scored 52 in the first game!). I think the Warriors will be ready for a similar Spurs defensive game plan for tonight and will torch the Spurs down low.
I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch in an offensive perspective and that’s why I’m taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 741/742 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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