Projected Line: 181 points
Miami had a different approach to Game 3, no doubt about that! Their mindset was to pound Indiana down low, especially with Lebron on the post more than ever! On the first two games of the series, the Heat had just a post up volume of 3.40% and 5.00%, but on Game 3 that percentage went to 13.8% with 5-10 FG and 1.08 PPP! Indiana's defense doesn't double team anyone and Lebron James took advantage of that to pound Paul George time and time again. The big difference on the Game 3 was that Miami explore Indiana's weaknesses in an impressive way! As I've mentioned countless times this season, Indiana allows their opponents to hit mid-range jumpers and their philosophy is based upon closing the paint and the three-points line without contesting the opposing mid-range shots. The problem was that Miami almost hit almost of their mid-range jumpers, with even Udonis Haslem shooting 8-9 FG! There was clearly a merit from Miami with this approach, but there was also some luck as they hit almost all their shots from mid-range, while Indiana wasn't prepared to defend Miami playing with this new tactic.
On the other side, we have a classic game for Indiana's offense. Unlike what happened on the Spurs x Grizzlies series, where Memphis's frontcourt was unable to pound San Antonio at the paint, Roy Hibbert and David West are having a tremendous edge down low against Miami. Hibbert shot just 4-12 FG on Game 3, but he shot 12-15 FT and grabbed 7 offensive boards! The truth is that Miami's defense is simply unable to defend Indiana's frontcourt no matter what. On the second half, Indiana was much better on defense. They were more assertive, they gave less space on the down low, but the problem was that their offense was unable to outplay Miami's defense as well. As the Heat had just 5 turnovers, Indiana had a low volume of transition plays with just 6.8%! Still, the Pacers shot a really nice 8-14 (57.1%) 3pts on this game, something that shows how much they struggled down low: 21-59 (35.5%) FG on 2pts shots!
The pace on Game 3 was once again super slow: 83.37! There was a lot of merit on Miami for that. They need to run to score points, however the Heat were at the same time incredibly patient on offense. In fact, this is why they committed just 1 turnovers on the first half and a total of 5 turnovers on the whole game! The Heat worked really well on their post up game on Game 3 and I expect that to happen once again tonight, something that burns a lot of the shotclock. The Pacers were clueless on defense on the first half of Game 3, but they improved a lot on the second half. I believe Indiana has also understood that they need to double team Lebron James on the post. However, the difference on this series isn't being made by Lebron, who had 36 points and 14-20 FG on Game 2 and the Heat still lost the game. What allowed Miami to crush Indiana on Game 3 were the role players, with Udonis Haslem shooting 8-9 FG, Mario Chalmers 4-6 FG and Chris Anderson 4-4 FG, for a combined effort of 16-19 FG!
Indiana needs to "eliminate" Miami's role players and not just focus on Lebron James. I believe the Pacers will be successful on doing this tonight, especially regarding Haslem. On the other side, with the Heat avoiding turnovers really well, Indiana's transition game doesn't have opportunities to pound the Heat's defense. The Pacers will continue with their edge on the down low, but they won't be able to repeat the 8-14 3pts that they had on Game 3, especially with four of those treys being made on super contested shots. Game 3 also had 28+44=72 FT attempts, something that inflated the total number of points on that contest considerably. Indiana was super aggressive on the second half of Game 2 with 25 FT attempts because they were down by a lot of points, something that won't happen tonight, as I expect a much closer game. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
NOTE: This line is currently available at Bovada and SportsInteraction. The public is currently pounding the Over, so it's likely that the line will get even better for us as gametime approaches!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 186 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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