Projected Line: 190 points
The spot for Miami tonight is very good, as it generally is for home favorites in Game 2 who lost Game 1 straight-up. That was visible yesterday when the Knicks crushed the Pacers in the fourth quarter of Game 2, after having lost Game 1. The Bulls won the first game of this series, after Miami missed a lot of wide open shots. There are no miracles and the Bulls's backcourt defense with Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli isn't as good as their defense with Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich.
Miami took a "wait-and-see" approach in Game 1, especially with Lebron James passing the ball a lot, but with the Heat's shooters missing almost everything. Miami has been an elite 16-23 feet shooting team, but they shot just 4-14 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-24 3pts on the Game 1 of this series. The Bulls were especially good in running back to defense and prevent Miami from scoring a lot in transition. But still, the Heat trapped the Bulls's ball handlers so well that they forced 16 turnovers, something that resulted in 22 points off turnovers to Miami.
Tonight I expect Miami to be much more focused. They should have a good ball movement once again that will generate easy looks, something that will continue happening as long as Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich keep being out of this series. I believe the Heat will have a better shooting efficiency than they had in Game 1, while they will also be more aggressive and therefore get more free throw attempts. I also believe Miami will try to play at a faster pace tonight, as if they are playing small ball with the Bulls, it's better for them to play at a faster pace.
On the other hand, Chicago's offense looked good in Game 1 and their 35 points in the fourth quarter were legit! There was no "hero ball". They played well and had an excellent playcaling. Chicago has a nice rebounding edge on this series and they should be able to score well down low with Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer tonight. With Nate Robinson also making some tough shots as usual, I expect the Bulls to keep showing tonight their consistent outside shooting with Nate Robinson, Marco Belinelli and Jimmy Butler. Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 186,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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