Projected Line: Miami by 4 points
For the Game 1 of this series, I expect that Indiana will be better prepared than Miami especially on defense! The transition from facing the Knicks' small ball to Miami's small ball isn't that hard to do. Indiana's defense will make Miami struggle to score down low and from the outside. Dwyane Wade has been physically limited on these playoffs and Miami might struggle with that. The Heat are yet to face any problems in scoring via perimeter on this postseason. Milwaukee's backcourt defense with Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings, J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy was non-existent, while Chicago without Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich doesn't have an impressive backcourt defense, as Jimmy Butler was the only good backcourt defensive player available. Now against Indiana, the Pacers have three good defensive players on their backcourt in George Hill, Lance Stephenson and Paul George. I also expect Indiana to crash the boards during this series as a trade off of the face that Miami will keep using small lineups throughout the series.
Paul George will defend Lebron James without any kind of team help, just like it happened on the series against the Knicks, where he defended Carmelo Anthony. With the Heat's shooters being well defended, Lebron will need to have a "scorer mindset" and simply outplay George time and time again, something that he might struggle in accepting at the start of this series. I remember that he had just 2 points on the first half of Game 1 against Chicago, while he scored 22 points on the second half, but that wasn't enough for the Heat to recover and they ended up losing that game. Miami has the edge down the stretch, but we are talking about a 8-points spread in here. That's too much for this specific matchup and so, I'll be taking the Pacers tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Indiana Pacers (+8) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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