NBA - 511 Denver Nuggets @ 512 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected line: 207 points | LA Lakers by 1 point
We have in here a matchup where my Power Ranking says that Denver is a better team than the Lakers, but the clutch and down the stretch experience gives the Lakers some edge, especially at home, but still I see enough edge for me to take Denver today, with such a line offered by the sportsbooks. In terms of gameplan, it's easy to understand what coach Karl wants to do during this series: run! The Lakers have in the Gasol vs Faried matchup a clear edge for Pau down low and especially Bynum can dominate down low any center from the Nuggets. As Denver won't be able to defend Bynum, the best way to avoid Bynum to dominate them is to make the game really fast, as Bynum is a terrible runner and this is why the Lakers are such a terrible transition defensive team, so the Nuggets may edge some edge in here, with their superior depth in the bench.
"We've actually talked about, in a crazy way — you can't do it, but what if our center position was like hockey?" Nuggets coach George Karl said. "Four- or five-minute stints, just run, run, run, run. Next guy, run, run, run, run. Because I know Bynum and Gasol don't want to run, run, run, run for 48 minutes. We can't do that probably, but we actually talked about instead of playing guys 10 minutes (each), shortening it to six, seven minutes."
Besides this, coach Karl loves small lineup with Andre Miller and Al Harrington and this will only be effective for them if Denver pushes the pace, as in half court they would get crushed! Besides the Lakers being a bad transition defense team and even though their frontcourt size, they don't have a good interior defense. Their frontcourt is just too slow in the rotations and note that the Lakers allowed 63% FG at the rim and 64% FG since Sessions joined the team. In fact, in their last game against Denver, Kobe didn't play but Pau and Bynum played for 38 minutes and Denver still shot 25-39 FG at the rim and 9-15 FG from 3-9 feet! It was easy for Denver to score near the basket, besides they also shot 9-15 FG in transition! The problem for the Nuggets in that game was that they just couldn't shoot from the outside with 1-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-17 3pts! Both Gallinari and Lawson were terrible and I doubt they will be this bad once again today.
On the other hand, the Lakers offense will have a clear edge in the frontcourt, as once Bynum gains the position down low and has the ball, he will easily score. The same will happen between Gasol and Faried, especially with Kobe back in the team and with his presence allowing the team's offense to spread the floor. Denver is also a bad transition defensive team and Sessions is a good player in exploring this kind of problems. I believe this game will be played in a fast pace and with both teams having clear edges on offense, I am taking the Over in here. As I expect Denver to make this game highly competitive due to the Lakers defensive troubles in defending the Nuggets in both transitions and at the rim, I'll also take Denver in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Denver Nuggets (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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