NBA - 503 New York Knicks @ 504 Miami Heat
Projected line: Miami by 6 points
From all the games of this series, this might be the hardest game for Miami. In fact, if Chandler wasn't struggling with the flu, the Knicks would have been a Top Play for me in here. Miami has been resting starters and incredibly, the last time the Big 3 played together was in MSG against this very same Knicks, almost two weeks ago! The NBA is a game of momentum and it's not easy to switch on good basketball whenever a team wants, so this game might become a very tough one for the Heat. In fact, Miami did something similar at the end of last year's regular season and then struggled in their first game against Philadelphia, as they won by just 97-89 when they were a -10.5 favorite. When they gained some momentum back, they easily crushed the Sixers in Game 2 by 94-73! No matter the opponent, this would never be an easy spot for Miami after a long time without their best players together on court.
On the other hand, the Knicks continue to be at a good level and they only rested some of their players in the last game, with Amare playing at Charlotte to get back his good legs. The Knicks have been playing well and they actually have a good matchup against Miami. They have Chandler to patrol the paint and he has a considerable edge over Miami's center, whoever they use. Then, Fields, Shumpert and Melo are all underrated defenders and they will be defending Wade and Lebron. Plus, they are also a team that shoots well from deep and that's a major weakness from the Heat defense. The Knicks also force a lot of turnovers and so, this won't be an easy series for Miami.
Besides all of this, the Knicks have a considerable edge in the gameplan for this game. Everybody knows how Miami plays and the Knicks will have every detail studied, while the team from NY may surprise today. They have been playing very well with Melo at PF and Amare recently returned to the lineup, therefore coach Woodson may surprise Miami with certain lineups in the middle of the game and I'm fully expecting that to happen. I predict this game to be a tough one for Miami and this is why I only have them to be a favorite by two ball possessions today. With the line giving us the edge on the Knicks, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 New York Knicks (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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