NBA - 703 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 704 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected line: Oklahoma City by 5 points
This is a big game for both teams, as both have great motivation to win this game. Oklahoma City is fighting for the #1 seed to face Phoenix/Utah/Houston in the first round of the playoffs, while the Lakers are trying to be the #3 seed to avoid Memphis in the first round. After their last game against San Antonio, it was visible that the Lakers defense has huge defensive problems that were taken in advantage by the Spurs offense and that Oklahoma City will also take in advantage today. Their first defensive problem is their transition defense, but their main problem is really their defense on P&R plays. Several times against San Antonio, Parker would just run a high P&R and the Lakers frontcourt players wouldn't rotate, as Bynum is a terrible defender on P&R plays. So, it was normal to see the Spurs shooting 9-17 on P&R ball handler plays, with 4-4 on 3pts, and 6-8 FG on P&R roll man! San Antonio also attacked with speed with 10-15 FG in transition and even though the Thunder aren't as effective in transitions as the Spurs are, they will still do some damage in these areas, as in fact in the last game between these two teams, Oklahoma City scored 25 fast break points with 6-9 FG in transition, with 25% of their plays being P&R ball handler plays, with 8-23 FG which isn't great numbers but the high volume shows that they will try to explore the Lakers' huge defensive problem today.
On the other hand, the Lakers offense now seems more focused in feeding their big men down low, but Oklahoma City has a great interior defense by being #4 in the league in defending post up plays and even though the Lakers frontcourt had a good game in their last game against the Thunder, note that the Lakers shot just 6-17 FG on post up plays! Oklahoma City is the better team from the two teams right now, they will have a clear edge on their offense, while they have weapons to stop the Lakers offense today and therefore, I'll be taking the Thunder today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Oklahoma City Thunder (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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