NBA - 711 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 712 Sacramento Kings
Projected line: 218 points
Sacramento is 0-9 ATS on their last 9 games and their efficiency on offense has been in regression lately, even on their home win against Portland. They continue being a good transition team, while at the same time they are completely horrible in defending transition plays. In their last 5 games, they averaged 18.8 fast break points per game, but they also allowed an average of 17.6 fast break points! They need to have easy shots at the rim to be effective, as shown in their games against San Antonio and Portland, where they shot 29-46 FG and 21-31 FG respectively at the rim. The question in here is that Oklahoma City has been defending quite well at the rim lately by allowing just 53% FG on this area on their last 10 games. In fact, in the last game between these two teams, Sacramento shot 10-26 FG at the rim, with Ibaka having 9 blocks!
On the other hand, Sacramento's defense will get crushed by Oklahoma City, as the Kings interior defense doesn't exist neither does any kind of team help. San Antonio shot 7-11 FG in transition, 10-11 FG on cuts and 11-22 FG on P&R ball handler against them. Even Portland was able to shoot 9-16 FG in transition against them. Oklahoma City is coming from a nice win in Phoenix, after having lost in LA against the Clippers. They were very aggressive against the Suns, with 11-15 FG in transition and 8-16 FG on P&R Ball Handler! They seem to be focused again but looking at all the offensive edges they will have tonight, I kinda expect them to have little effort on defense and allow Sacramento to also have a decent offensive game tonight. Therefore, I expect a shootout in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 213,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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