Milwaukee at Indiana
Projected line: Indiana by 9 points
Milwaukee had a good spot last night, they needed to win and they had been close to unbeatable recently in games against lowly teams. However, they lost in Washington yesterday because their defense continues to play terribly. The Bucks had another solid offensive game with good ball movement and with great shooting at the rim with 23-28 FG. They just struggled on 3pts shooting with 5-19 3pts. However, they simply don't defend. Ellis did well on offense, but barely defended. In fact, Jennings and Ellis produced 56 points on 44 shots and 10 assists, however Wall and Crawford countered with 46 points on 30 shots and 13 assists. This resulted on Ellis and Jennings being a combined -20, while Wall and Crawford combined +20! Washington shot 8-12 FG in transition and even on P&R's where they usually struggle, they did well with 10-15 FG on P&R Ball Handler! Milwaukee's frontcourt can't stop anybody and both Nene and Seraphin abused them. They will now play in Indiana in a back to back game and with their playoffs hopes basically ruined last night, I doubt on their mindset for this game.
Indiana is playing really well right now and their #3 seed is almost secured. They have been playing good offense lately by averaging 114.5 offensive rates in their last 6 games, while also having good ratios in A/TO! This series is at 2-0 in favor of Indiana, with both games being played in Milwaukee. These first two games were played on similar tough spots for both teams (4th game in 5 nights and back-to-back-to-back + 3rd game in 4 nights + back-to-back), while tonight both teams will have a better spot. The Pacers will have a clear size edge in the frontcourt today and the only way the Bucks have been able to stop Indiana's offense this season has been via fouling them and that's why Indiana shot 39 and 26 FTA in the first two games of the series. In fact, Indiana's struggled on their shooting in their last win over the Bucks by 105-99, as they shot just 7-26 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-19 3pts, while also shooting 4-16 FG on spot up plays!
However, with the high confidence that Indiana has right now, I expect a great offensive game from them today. They will also have a huge edge in terms of boards like in the first two games of the series and therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Pacers tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Indiana in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Indiana Pacers (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment