NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 New York Knicks
Projected line: 192 points
The Knicks with their current lineup are playing at a faster pace than it was expected with Melo in PF position. Their offense has been playing rather well, with the exception of their game in Chicago, while their defense is also being at a good level. So, today they will be a very tough nut to crack against the Heat. On the other hand, Miami continues having an identity crisis, as coach Spoelstra has been messing up with the rotations and the Heat also have some banged up players. Joel Anthony was removed from the lineup and Turiaf is questionable for today. With all this uncertainty with the Heat on the center position, I believe Miami will surely play some small ball against the Knicks today. It is likely for Bosh to play a lot of time in the center position, with Lebron playing as a PF to have a matchup against Melo or Haslem and Bosh at the same time in the frontcourt. I really don't believe Joel, Turiaf and Pittman will have minutes in the important parts of the game today.
The small ball both teams will play today will make the pace of this game be quite fast actually, This will be the 3rd game between these two teams and in the first two games, the pace was 90.7 and 93.9. The question in here was that the Knicks offense was stopped both teams with offensive rates of 98 and 92.5! In the first game, the Knicks backcourt was formed by Douglas and Fields, besides Melo was out of that game. No wonder the Knicks struggled! In the second game, in the middle of the Lin era, where the Knicks were running P&R's after P&R's and with the Heat being a top 3 team in defending this kind of plays, the Knicks' offense was once again stopped, with Lin shooting 1-11 FG and committing 8 turnovers. However, the Knicks offense nowadays is much harder to be stopped, as they are using a lot more spot up plays and cuts! Their 3pts ball is now much crispier and Miami has been struggling the whole season in stop up defense by allowing high FG%'s from the outside, as seen in their last game against the Celtics. On the other hand, the Heat offense will have see their Big 3 having good offensive games today, while the Knicks have also been committing some turnovers that Miami will take advantage of to run their great transition plays. Therefore, I expect a good offensive game for both teams today and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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