Thursday, April 19, 2012

NBA Premium Play 04/18: New Orleans Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies


NBA - 713 New Orleans Hornets @ 714 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected line: 176 points | Memphis by 6 points

This is a super bad spot for Memphis. I watched their game last night in Minnesota and they had a super bad body language. They really had no legs, no aggressiveness to attack the rim and that's why they had just 6-11 FT! With this game being their 4th game in 5 days, besides being a back to back game, this isn't really a good spot for them. This is a revenge game for Memphis, however I don't believe they will have fresh enough legs to make this game a blowout win for them. On similar spots this season, Memphis had in 7 games an average of 98.3 offensive rates and 103.1 defensive rates, with an average pace of 90.5! Yesterday, the progression of the score shows how the Grizzlies really struggled with tired legs: 32-23-22-14 points scored! Memphis shot just 16-33 FG at the rim and the good part was that their defense played quite well, even though Minnesota was also on a poor spot. 

On the other side, the Hornets continue to play very solid basketball and they are continuously being underrated. Eric Gordon will be back in the lineup today and the team keeps playing hard and with a good spot for them, I don't believe in a fold by the Hornets today. That was a possibility in their game at Charlotte, but they still won the game. The first game between these two teams had a super slow pace, with the Grizzlies struggling to score easy points, with 10-21 FG at the rim and 0-5 FG from 3-9 feet. On this terrible spot for them, I believe something similar should happen today. I believe this game will have a slow pace once again and I find really hard to believe that Memphis will have fresh enough legs to blowout a Hornets team, who keeps playing very hard on their games. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Hornets and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 180 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 New Orleans Hornets (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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