Friday, April 20, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play 04/20: New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers


  
New York  at Cleveland 
 
 
NBA - 705 New York Knicks @ 706 Cleveland Cavaliers


Projected line: 198 points

Cleveland was squashed at Detroit with terrible defense, with no transition defense whatsoever, as Detroit shot 13-16 FG in transitions and with the guards from the Pistons doing what they wanted. On their last game against Philadelphia, Irving returned to the lineup, but the Cavs defense continued to struggle. With the Cavs not being aggressive on defense, the Sixers rotated well the ball and they were red hot from the outside with 10-20 FG from 16-23 and 9-15 3pts in their first great outside shooting game in a long time. Cleveland actually tried to use some zone defense, but they struggled so much in doing that correctly that they quickly gave up on that. The improvements on the Cavs lineup were really in terms of offense, as Jamison was aggressive and Irving penetrated with some efficiency, even though their 2nd unit struggled again.

They'll face the Knicks tonight, with Amare returning to the team and immediately on the starting lineup, sending the struggling Fields to the bench. With that, the Knicks defense will decrease a bit in terms of quality, while their offense may improve, depending on Amare's condition. Anyway, Cleveland's perimeter defense is so terrible (44% FG from 16-23 and 40% on 3pts allowed in their last 5 games) that the Knicks are very likely to hit a lot of treys once again today. The Cavs continue to be the worst team in the league in spot up defense and so, the Knicks have all the necessary conditions to have a good offensive game today, with Davis back at PG position and ready to make some P&R's plays with Amare.

On the other hand, I expect Cleveland to be fired up on offense, with both Jamison and Irving being aggressive today. The head to head is at 2-1 in favor of the Knicks, with the last game being already with Woodson as the Knicks head coach. The game ended with a 91-75 result in favor of the Knicks, however note that both teams were on super bad spots for that game, as Cleveland was playing their 4th game in 5 days and was also on a back to back spot, while the Knicks were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and they were also coming from a tough game at Atlanta in the night before. This time both teams have favorable spots and so, I expect a good offensive game from both teams, especially from the Knicks, and so I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

No comments:

Post a Comment