Thursday, April 26, 2012

NBA Premium Play 04/25: Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder


NBA - 507 Denver Nuggets @ 508 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected line: 110 points 1ST HALF | Denver by 5 points

This is Oklahoma City's last game in the regular season and in yesterday's game against Sacramento, the Thunder didn't use their starters in the 4th quarter, even though they are losing the game at the time, before outscoring the Kings by 36-24 in the last quarter of the game, mostly due to Sacramento being in tank mode. Today I expect a similar decision by the Thunder, with their starters at the bench in the 4th quarter, in order to avoid injuries. 

On the other hand, Denver is currently fighting for the #6 seed with Dallas and if they fail to secure their #6 seed, they will face the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. Therefore, I expect to see the Nuggets with a lot more motivation to win this game than Oklahoma City. Denver has also more depth, so when the 4th quarter arrives, the Nuggets will have a considerable edge over the Thunder's 2nd unit, good enough to sneak the win in here. Therefore, I'll take the Nuggets today. As Oklahoma City's only interest on this game will be Durant to secure his scoring title and he will mostly play in the 1st half, I'll also be taking the Over in the 1st half today!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 106,5 FIRST HALF @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Denver Nuggets (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

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