Thursday, April 19, 2012

NBA Premium Play 04/18: Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks


NBA - 707 Detroit Pistons @ 708 Atlanta Hawks

Projected line: 197 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Atlanta had their revenge over Toronto in their last game, after being humiliated at home by the same Raptors. Offensively, the Hawks did what they wanted to do with a solid all-around game, with a great ball movement with 28A and just 10 TO. They had a good shot distribution, they attacked the rim well and they had a good transition with 11-17 FG. Today they won't have problems in scoring in transition against Detroit and their only problem will be on defense. On their game against Toronto, I had a play in the Under and I said "Toronto shot 19-22 FG at the rim after three games in a row where they shot 7-19 FG, 7-14 FG and 8-16 FG on this area!" I expected a defensive bounce back on this area, but the truth is that Toronto had once again an easy path at the rim with 21-31 FG at the rim and 4-8 FG from 3-9 feet. It was all too easy for a team with no inside game and whose guards aren't very aggressive, besides DeRozan. Toronto had 6-8 FG in cuts and 6-8 FG on offensive boards, with Zaza's absence being quite visible right now.

Detroit is coming from a huge blowout win over Cleveland, where they were up by 100-50 after the 3rd quarter. They shot 13-16 FG in transition and shot well from every area. The last game between these two teams ended 101-96 and something similar may happen today: a high scoring game. Atlanta is struggling in defending the rim and Detroit is dangerous when their guards attack the rim plus Monroe has a good matchup with Zaza being out. I expect both teams to have good offensive games today and so, I'll take the Over in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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