NBA - 513 Boston Celtics @ 514 Atlanta Hawks
Projected line: Boston by 3 points
Boston decided to rest players instead of fighting for the homecourt edge, while Atlanta did the opposite. Anyway, both teams can win on the road, so I don't see the home court being a big factor on this series. Atlanta has both Zaza and Horford out, so only Collins and maybe Dampier are the only centers who will get a couple of minutes today, but nothing more than 10/15 minutes. So, the Hawks will play small ball with Ivan Johnson and Josh Smith in the center position! When that happens, Atlanta will have big guards like Marvin at PF, TMac or Joe Johnson as their SF! These are good news for Boston, as first of all, Atlanta can't dominate the boards playing like this, as shown in the last game between these two teams, where Boston won the boards battle with almost 60% of the boards grabbed. Then, Atlanta lacks a physical big guy, so the Garnett+Bass combo can handle the Hawks frontcourt quite well.
Boston is a well oiled machine on defense and they will create a lot of problems to Atlanta's offense, who is a perimeter team. Atlanta was #3 on spot ups offense during the regular season, but they will face Boston, who was #1 on spot ups defense! I also see an edge in terms of executing favoring Boston, with both Garnett and Pierce being clutch today. Atlanta is a team that lose focus when they struggle to score, especially Josh Smith who turns into a bad shots machine! Boston's offense is now using a lot of cuts and off screens, something that will work very well on this matchup, as Atlanta hasn't been a good defensive team on these two areas: #14 and #17 during the regular season. I believe Boston is the better team and that Atlanta is a good matchup for them and therefore, I believe that they will be able to win this game, with a superior down the stretch play. Therefore, I'll take Boston in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Boston Celtics (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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