NBA - 501 Denver Nuggets @ 502 Phoenix Suns
Projected line: 206 points
This game is very important for both teams, especially for Phoenix who is trying to secure the 8th seed in the Western conference. Therefore, we can expect a great playoff atmosphere and a lot of physical play in here. These two teams faced each other recently, with Denver winning by 105-99. Both teams didn't shoot very well in that game, as both shot 46 eFG%, but with Phoenix committing 16 turnovers, while Denver turned the ball over just 5 times. These turnovers were transformed into transition points, resulting in 16 fast break points for Denver, while shooting 8-12 FG in transitions. I believe Phoenix will try to slow down the pace and to be very focused on not committing turnovers.
Denver's offense is on a shooting slump from the outside, as they have just shot 26% FG from 16-23 feet and 35% 3pts in their last 5 games, with Gallinari being completely out of form right now. They are just scoring in transition or with shots at the rim, so look forward to see Phoenix executing some zone defense on this game to force Denver to try some jump shooters. This has been a problem during this whole season for the Nuggets, as Denver really struggles when their opponents use zone defense. On the other side, it looks like Gortat has run out of gas on this last stages of the regular season and this is being visible with Phoenix struggling a bit on P&R plays. Also Denver's interior defense is being much better lately by allowing 58% FG at the rim in their last 10 games and 57% FG in their last 5 games. So, don't expect Phoenix to score a lot of easy points today.
Looking at the offensive problems both teams are having, the playoff atmosphere of this game and the slow pace Phoenix will try to set in the game to avoid transition plays from Denver, I've came up with a projected line of 206 points for this contest, low enough for me to take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 211 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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