NBA - 503 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 504 Detroit Pistons
Projected line: 196 points
With their current lineup, Cleveland is heavily struggling to defend the paint. They have allowed 68% FG at the rim in their last 10 games and even 70% FG in their last 5 games! We aren't talking just about defending the opposing big men due to their undersized frontcourt, but they are also struggling in defending the penetrations from the opposing backcourt. Against Orlando, the Magic shot 16-23 FG at the rim, with Nelson shooting 5-6 FG from this area for example! Also against the Wizards, they allowed Washington to shoot 18-25 FG at the rim, with Wall shooting 4-6 FG and Crawford 6-7 FG from this area. Even the lowly Bobcats were able to shoot 21-27 FG at the rim against them, with Henderson shooting 7-7 FG, Augustin 2-2 FG and Kemba 4-5 FG!
On the other hand, Detroit is coming from a game against Chicago, where they naturally had problems down low with just 14-32 FG at the rim. However, the Pistons will come from facing the best rim defense in the league to face possibly the worst rim defense right now in the league! Detroit will therefore have an excellent chance to score easy points near the basket today and stop being a jump shooting team, where they struggle. The key for this game will be in the Pistons defense. They are coming from a big effort against the Bulls and with this game being against the lowly Cavs, I don't expect Detroit to make a big defensive effort tonight. Their perimeter defense has been recently terribly by allowing 50% FG from 16-23 feet and 40% 3pts in their last 5 games, something that will help the Cavs offense that is pretty much a perimeter based offensive team. I believe both teams have the necessary conditions to have good offensive games tonight due to their opponent's defensive struggles and therefore, I'll take the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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