NBA - 501 New York Knicks @ 502 Chicago Bulls
Play #1
The Knicks faced the Bucks last night and they left a bad sign for tonight's game, considering that they will face the fired up Bulls. It was clear that the Knicks were on their last legs down the stretch yesterday and this isn't good news for them at all, as they will be on a back to back spot tonight. So, the physical conditions of the Knicks might become a key factor for this game, especially against a physical team like Chicago. I understand that the Knicks were up by 24 points early on the third quarter yesterday, but that was due to some very favorable factors. First of all, it's important to realize that Milwaukee won't be a quality team this season and things only got worse for them with starting Poing Guard Brandon Knight getting injured on the second minute of the game and with his usual back up Luke Ridnour out of the game with back spasms, Milwaukee was forced to unleash the rookie Nate Wolters.
This was super favorable to the Knicks who put pressure on the Bucks' guards, something that allow them to force 24 turnovers! On the other hand, with Nate Wolters and Gary Neal on the backcourt, the Knicks' potential bad backcourt defense formed by the banged up Raymond Felton and the slow footed Pablo Prigioni wasn't explored in yesterday's game. Things will be completely different on tonight's game with the Knicks having to face Derrick Rose, who is coming from a poor performance against Miami, but where he looked really good physically. Raymond Felton tweaked his hamstring during yesterday's game, but managed to play through the injury. On the other hand, Pablo Prigioni also played yesterday through an illness. Therefore, these two players will have a nightmare matchup against Derrick Rose tonight!
Another reason that explains the Knicks' big lead yesterday was Larry Sanders getting into foul trouble early in the game and being able to play only 12 minutes. Without one of the best interior defenders in the league, Milwaukee got exposed and the Knicks scored 50 points in the paint, something really unusual for a jump shooting team. With Kenyon Martin still very far from being at 100% right now, Coach Mike Woodson used Andrea Bargnani almost always at the Center position. Once again, things will be completely different against Chicago imponent frontcourt unit tonight. On the 15/20 minutes that Bargnani will play at Center, the Knicks will get crushed on the boards battle by Taj Gibson. The Knicks managed to get a slight edge on boards last night, but they will get crushed tonight on this area.
Chicago's loss at Miami last Tuesday was humiliating, but there are certain things that need to be taken in consideration. Miami had a mega 17-0 run in the second quarter that allowed them to get a 37-18 advantage. However, that happened due to Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler being in foul trouble, something that made the Bulls' normally excellent perimeter defense struggle. In fact, if we look at the boxscore to the CHI +/- team points, we see that Deng had +6 and Butler +10! Tonight one of these two great defenders will guard Carmelo Anthony, while the Knicks will struggle as they won't be able to force so many turnovers or score in the paint like they did last night. The Knicks's second unit without the suspended J.R. Smith lacks scoring punch as well, so Chicago has all the necessary conditions to bounce back and get a double digit win tonight. I'm taking the Bulls in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Chicago Bulls (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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