NBA - 501 Milwaukee Bucks @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #1
Charlotte is coming from a home loss against Indiana, where they showed once again that they defend well, but they couldn't do anything on offense against the Pacers' elite defense! The Bobcats were forced to settle into jump shots and they can't win games playing like that:
“They’re so good and so long that you don’t get any easy ones to get you started offensively", Bobcats coach Steve Clifford said. "So everything was pull-up jump shots."
Al Jefferson still managed to produce some offense with 7-15 FG and 15 points, but the team's guards struggled against Indiana's defense with 8-27 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-9 3pts! Charlotte couldn't do anything on pick and rolls (4-23 FG & 0.44 PPP), so they couldn't do anything special on offense overall. On the other hand, Charlotte's defense showed once again that they are excellent in protecting the paint! Even a good team like Indiana struggled to score down low against them with 12-26 FG! The key would have to be the Pacers' outside shooting, who struggled during the first three quarters, but then woke up in the final quarter with C.J. Watson making five treys in a row and with the team making seven of their ten treys in that quarter!
Milwaukee finally managed to be competitive, but they lost on overtime at home against Washington. However, I saw some improvements on offense from that: more movement off the ball, better screens that also gave them better outside shooting numbers with 10-25 3pts and 11-22 FG from 16-23 feet! The problem for them has been their lack of inside scoring and with them having no easy points down low, they become a jump shooting team who isn't aggressive with just 10 FT attempts. They also commit too many turnovers, with Brandon Knight screwing things up down the stretch on a poor performance: 2-12 FG and 5 turnovers! On the other hand, Marcin Gortat dominated with 11-12 FG!
The Bucks will then play at Charlotte tonight and the Bobcats have a nice spot for an offensive bounce back. They are coming from facing the best defensive team in the league and they will now face Milwaukee, so Al Jefferson will immediately have a much better matchup down low against the Bucks' poor interior defense than he had against Indiana's elite interior defense. Marcin Gortat destroyed them and even on the last game between these two teams, Al Jefferson dominated them with 8-15 FG and 19 points in 25 minutes! Also Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson will have a better matchup, after shooting a combined of 6-32 FG against the Pacers. Milwaukee's pick and roll defense is one of the worst in the league and the Bobcats have already taken advantage of that this season with 12-24 FG on pick and rolls in the previous game between these two teams. Charlotte scored 96 points in that game, while using their second unit for most of the fourth quarter and having a poor 15-27 FT mark! If it wasn't for that, they would have had their best offensive game of the season in that game! They will have a nice matchup to be effective on offense and so, I expect them to take advantage of that!
The difference on tonight's game in comparison to the first game played between these two teams should be on Milwaukee's performance on offense. In that first game, they scored just 72 points, but they were on a back to back spot and they had gone to overtime at Washington the night before. Milwaukee has changed its lineup meanwhile to generate more offense and their offensive flow is definitely improved. I took the Over in that game with the assumption that Milwaukee would have some edge on outside shooting against Charlotte's poor perimeter defense, but they struggled with 16-49 FG from +10 feet shots! Things will be different tonight and so, I expect this game to be a relatively high scoring one. I'm taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 182.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 519 New Orleans Pelicans @ 520 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #2
Philadelphia is coming from a loss in Orlando, where the main reason for their loss was their lack of interior defense that allow Nikola Vucevic and Glen Davis to have a combined of 40 points, 19-28 FG, 21 rebounds and 6 assists against them! Philadelphia had a nice edge on pick and rolls and mid-range shooting, but that wasn't enough due to their lack of aggressiveness and transition game throughout the whole game. The Sixers will now face a Pelicans team that absolutely crushed them at New Orleans by 98-135 earlier in the season, even though Philadelphia was in a horrible spot in that game, as they were playing their third game in four nights, having also played the night before, and with the first game of this stretch of games being at home against Houston, in a super fast paced game that went to overtime. Also the fact that Michael Carter-Williams didn't play helped the Pelicans to crush the Sixers in that game.
The way the Pelicans defend is prone to have problems against teams like Philadelphia, who attempt a ton of treys, like to attack in transition and the rim as well. New Orleans's defense is just #26 in the league on transition defense with 1.18 PPP allowed, #21 on 3pts defense with 37.5% 3pts defense and #22 on rim defense with 60% FG allowed. Therefore, I believe the Sixers' offense will have an excellent spot on offense tonight. Curiously, the same happens with the Pelicans' offense against Philadelphia's defense and that's something normal given the 135 points scored by New Orleans on the first game played between these two teams this season. The Sixers have no interior defense, their transition defense is non-existent and the Pelicans are #4 in the league in fast break points scored per game with 17.3 points! I believe both offenses will have a dream matchup in here given the poor defenses that they will face tonight and so, I believe this game will be a super high scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519/520 Over 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 505 Miami Heat @ 506 Toronto Raptors
Play #3
Toronto is coming from a home loss against the Nets, even though this was their third good offensive game in a row, with an offensive rating higher than 110! However, these three good performances were against Philadelphia, Washington and Brooklyn. Their pick and rolls worked well on these games, but then again they will now face Miami who is an elite team on pick and roll defense. The Raptors will have a good edge on rebounding where they are #1 in the league and Miami is a subpar team on this area due to their undersized lineup. However, this will be Toronto's only edge tonight, as Miami's overall defense has been great lately by averaging a defensive rating of 97.8 over their last six games!
"Our defense has been better, certainly much better from those first few games of the season," coach Erik Spoelstra said. "Not only the activity, but the focus and commitment -- finishing plays, even on the glass, the way we started the season is not the type of habit we want to create. We know we're going to have to continue to try to get better, there's thing we can clean up. But the guys have been engaged and we're using our depth and the guys are playing hard."
On the other hand, Toronto's defense has been great in preventing fast breaks and in making good close outs, as they are #7 in the league on 3pts defense with 33.7% 3pts allowed. Toronto had a relaxed attitude on defense against Brooklyn on their last game and they lost the game because of that. They will certainly show a better attitude on defense tonight. I expect a slow paced game tonight, as Miami doesn't play fast and Toronto has the size edge in here, so they'll try to play it slow to try to clearly outrebound Miami tonight. On a slow paced game and with both teams showing good defense lately (barring Toronto's last game), I believe this game will actually be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 507 Dallas Mavericks @ 508 Atlanta Hawks
Play #4
Atlanta really didn't have a shot at Houston, on a bad physical spot for them and with no depth on the backcourt. To make things worse for them, Jeff Teague had a poor game with 0-5 FG and 3 turnovers, so Houston crushed them even without James Harden and with Jeremy Lin playing just 4 minutes due to injury. The Rockets shot 14-27 3pts! Atlanta will return home tonight to face Dallas, with Louis Williams and Selvin Mack being back, even though Kyle Korver will be still out. Atlanta's inconsistency on their rotations due to several injuries is also making them struggle on both ends of the floor and they'll have to change their rotations once again.
I believe Dallas has a good matchup in here. They lost three games against Boston, Orlando and Houston, with these last two teams being jump shooting teams like Dallas. The Mavericks have been struggling a bit lately, but they are also facing tough opposition, as they played against Houston, Denver and Golden State in four of their last five games! We know that Dallas struggles on interior defense, but Atlanta without Kyle Korver won't be a threat at all on their outside shooting, so Dallas will be able to protect the basket better and even putting some zone defense on the floor like they did against Denver. The Mavericks will also have a considerable bench edge, something that was the key for them to win their last game against the Warriors, even though Monta Ellis had a poor 2-16 FG game. I believe Dallas is the better team from the two and they have a nice matchup edge tonight as well, so I'll take them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Dallas Mavericks ML @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 510 Boston Celtics
Play #5
One more game played and Cleveland's offense keeps being miserable! They were unable once again this time at home against Miami to reach the 20-assists mark. It was the eight game in a row for them where they couldn't reach that mark! MySynergy says it all about their offense: most used play with 18% of volume was isolations! For today's game, the scenario won't be better for them as Boston's defense led by Avery Bradley is a good unit on perimeter defense! They are also decent on pick and roll defense, with their main weakness being on interior defense, something that Cleveland's offense doesn't do often as they lack the offensive flow to feed their big men down low!
Boston lost against Memphis at home on their last game, in a normal loss in my opinion as I took Memphis in that game. The Grizzlies were solid on offense with 25-31 FT and just eight turnovers committed. Boston had a monster edge on offensive rebounding with 17 offensive rebounds and guards play that kept them in the game almost until the very end. For tonight's game, both defenses are clearly better than their offenses right now. That's clear from Cleveland's slide, while Boston's offense is very inconsistent due to their outside shooting. They are actually coming from two nice 3pts shooting performances with 9-20 and 7-20 3pts, but that's not the general rule for them and just like it happens with Cleveland, they struggle in generating good looks. Both teams are in the bottom 5 regarding assists rate and I believe this will be another game for both teams where they'll struggle to generate good looks and so, they will shoot a bunch of contested shots that they'll miss. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 517 Washington Wizards @ 518 Indiana Pacers
Play #6
Indiana's defense just keeps being amazing in protecting the rim. Any time they face a team that has no outside shooting ability and that needs to score near the basket, they get crushed by Indiana, as they don't allow points near their rim. It's not like good outside shooting teams are doing much better against the Pacers this season, but teams with no outside shooting skills are getting absolutely crushed by Indiana.
The Pacers are coming from six games where they faced Chicago (#22 with 32.7% 3pts), the NY Knicks (#25 with 32.0% 3pts), Boston (#20 with 33.0% 3pts), Philadelphia (#23 with 32.3% 3pts), Minnesota (#24 with 32.3% 3pts) and Charlotte (#28 with 31.0% 3pts), while they will face Washington tonight, who is #8 in the league with 38.6% 3pts! As we can see, the Pacers have been facing poor outside shooting teams, while Washington is a much more dangerous team on this area, even though they are playing without Bradley Beal right now. Washington's offense doesn't need to create a lot of shots near the basket, as even their frontcourt formed by Marcin Gortat and Nene Hilario is capable of shooting well from mid-range. Therefore, it's possible that Indiana won't have the stellar defensive numbers that they generally generate on every single game.
On the other side, Indiana will face a Wizards defense that is very far from being an elite one in protecting the paint and that isn't defending well long range shooting at all with 68-172 (39.5%) 3pts allowed over their last seven games! Indiana's outside shooting is streaky, but they are currently on a good run now with 18-40 (45%) 3pts on their last two games and they will extend this run tonight another good performance against a poor Washington perimeter defense. Therefore, I believe this game will be a relatively high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Over 186,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 521 New York Knicks @ 522 Denver Nuggets
Plays #7 & 8
Denver is one of the most improved teams in the league lately! They are now playing much better in both ends of the floor, but especially on offense where they have been surprising me! I took them on their last two games and they won both games straight up! The biggest highlight of this improvement is being how tough their schedule has been lately with games against Houston, Oklahoma City, Chicago, Dallas twice and Minnesota! They are using a lot of pick and rolls to take advantage of Ty Lawson's speed, while running in transition a lot and attacking the basket as usual. I expect the Knicks' defense to get crushed tonight against Denver's offense. The NY team is just #29 on transition defense, #27 on pick and roll ball handler defense and with an out of form Raymond Felton returning on the team's last game, he will get completely outplayed by Ty Lawson's quickness.
On the other hand, the Knicks' bench is completely off sync right now with Amare Stoudemire, Metta World Peace and J.R. Smith. The only player who could actually stabilize the second unit would be Pablo Prigioni, but he is barely getting playing time these days. The Knicks won't be able to handle the red hot Nuggets and they will get crushed tonight. I don't understand why they aren't double digits underdogs on this game and so, I'll be taking Denver tonight. As I believe the Nuggets will have a big offensive game tonight, while the Knicks via Carmelo Anthony will also score a respectable amount of points in here, I'll be also taking the Over in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Denver Nuggets (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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