Play #1
I feel that this is a statement game for Detroit. They haven't won a Thanksgiving game since 2003 and they have also a rare opportunity to win their division. The spot also clearly favors the Lions today, as they are on a home-home spot, while the Packers are coming from a home game in the cold against Minnesota where the whole overtime was played. Aaron Rodgers will be once again out, so Matt Flynn will start in front of him after a positive second half against the Vikings last Sunday. Even though Flynn was decent last week, he faced a terrible Vikings secondary and things should be tougher for him today. As the Packers' passing game will be far from being at its best as Rodgers will once again be out of this game, they will need an effective running game performance and that won't be easy for them, given the Lions have allowed just 104 rushing yards on their three games since their bye week on 53 carries on a combined of 1.96 yards per carry! This is also confirmed by their run defense DVOA, who shows that they had -26.6%, -37.7%, -62.0%, -47.7% and -74.5% on their last five games!Therefore, Eddie Lacy will struggle in here, something that will put pressure on Flynn who will have to deal with a bunch of third and longs.
On the other hand, Green Bay's defense hasn't been great this season and if they were at least being an elite rushing defense at the start of the season, that also isn't true anymore since week 8. They had an average run defense DVOA of -15.9% on their first six games of the season, but a poor +18.9% on their last five games. The Packers lost both Casey Hayward and James Dixon for the season last Sunday and this removed their secondary depth a lot for the rest of the season! Detroit is coming from a kamikaze game against Tampa Bay, where they surprisingly lost due to their five turnovers! The 5-0 TO margin was the only area where the Bucs were better than the Lions, as Detroit had the edge with 25-10 on first downs and 390-229 on total yards. Not only I believe Detroit will be a bit more careful this time around to avoid turnovers, as Green Bay is dead last in the league with just 4 interceptions, so I don't believe the Lions will commit so many errors in here. The Lions lost at Green Bay by 9-22 earlier in the season, but Matthew Stafford didn't have both Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson available for that game, while Aaron Rodgers was still playing for the Packers. Things will be much different this time around and I believe Detroit will get revenge and make a good statement today with a big win over their rivals. I'm taking the Lions in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 304 Detroit Lions (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NFL Week 13 - 305 Oakland Raiders @ 306 Dallas Cowboys
Play #2
Dallas is currently struggling with a lot of important injuries at the linebacker position and this is being quite obvious especially on their rush defense. If they started the season with a nice -22.8% DVOA rush defense on their first seven games of the season, they severely regressed on their last four games with +28.2% DVOA! Oakland will now start QB Matt McGloin, who is coming another decent performance against Tennessee, where he had 19/32, 260 yards, 7.1 Y/P and 1/1 TD/INT. Since their bye week, Oakland's running game has also been looking decent with +5.7%, +33.7%, +31.3%, +12.9% and -7.7%! Therefore, Oakland has definitely a nice chance of having a good offensive performance against a Dallas's defense that has DE DeMarcus Ware banged up and LB Sean Lee, LB Justin Durant and CB Morris Claiborne possibly all out with injuries.
On the other side, Oakland's pass defense has been very inconsistent since their bye week. They shutdown Ben Roethlisberger, then allowed 7 TD passes to Nick Foles, bounced back against the NY Giants and Houston (two poor pass offenses) and last week they struggled against Tennessee with a +20.3% pass defense DVOA! When the Raiders allow a QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick to have 30/42, 320 yards and 2/0 TD/INT, this is a big worry for the future. Tennessee only scored 23 points in that game because they went 1-4 on the red zone, something unlikely to happen with Tony Romo and the Cowboys, as Dallas is #2 in the league on red zone scoring percentage (TD only) with 65%, only behind Denver. Therefore, I expect this game to be a high scoring one, with both offenses showing decent efficiency and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 305/306 Over 47 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NFL Week 13 - 307 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 308 Baltimore Ravens
Play #3
Looking at the overall DVOA numbers of both teams lately, Pittsburgh had -31.6% against New England (blowout loss), but then they bounced back really well on their last three games with +37.2% against Buffalo, +23.8% against Detroit and +38.8% against Cleveland! On the other hand, Baltimore had -6.2% on a loss at Cleveland (where Jason Campbell had a huge game with 23/35, 262 yards and 3/0 TD/INT), then -2.9% DVOA on an overtime win at home against Cincinnati, -17.3% on an overtime loss at Chicago and finally last week, they had a nice +23.4% DVOA on an easy home win against the NY Jets, in a game where Geno Smith struggled big time.
However, there is an area where the Steelers should have the upperhand on this matchup between two teams with similar levels. Joe Flacco was sacked 5 times against Cleveland, 5 times against Cincinnati, 3 times against Chicago and 4 times against the Jets, for a combined of 17 sacks in just four games! On the other side, the Steelers may be just #27 in the league with 23 total sacks this season, but they sacked Tom Brady three times, E.J. Manuel three times as well, Matthew Stafford twice and five sacks to Cleveland's QB's last week. That's a combined of 13 sacks on their last four games, while they had just had 10 sacks on their first seven games of the season! I believe Ben Roethlisberger is playing a bit better than Joe Flacco as of late and with the Steelers putting pressure on Flacco tonight, I believe Pittsburgh is being underrated on this contest and they are right now in my opinion a bit better than the Ravens. Therefore, I'll be taking the Steelers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 307 Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bovada
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