Plays #1 & 2
It's unbelievable how Philadelphia defeated Chicago last Saturday. After a first half where the Bulls dominated the boards and with their ball movement generating a lot of easy looks near the basket, Chicago collapsed after leading the game by 75-57 with 7:45 to go on the third quarter. Derrick Rose possibly played the worst game of his career with 4-14 FG and 8 turnovers, while the Bulls gave up on shooting near the basket and went 1-12 FG on the third quarter outside the painted area! On the other hand, the Sixers took advantage of Chicago's silly errors to score in transition, while also showing some good perimeter shooting from players that aren't supposed to be very efficient such as Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young and Tony Wroten! Meanwhile, Michael Carter-Williams was amazing the whole game and absolutely outplayed Derrick Rose. Thanks to Rose's errors, the Bulls' offense disappeared in the second half and after scoring 64 points on the first half, they scored just 40 on the second half!
Golden State is coming from an easy home win over Sacramento, where they showed their amazing offensive flow once again. They continue to create a lot of open shots on the outside for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, something that makes their offense be lethal against anybody! The Warriors held the Kings to 87 points on this game, but Sacramento also helped them with DeMarcus Cousins being outplayed by Andrew Bogut, while the team's perimeter shooting was also poor with 6-26 (23.1%) 3pts.
For tonight, I expect this game to be played on a very fast pace. Both teams showed that they wanted to play fast on the preseason and this has been confirmed on the early season as well, with these two teams being on the top 3 in the league on pace factor right now. Golden State's offense has been excellent so far and they are averaging 29.3 assists per game! They easily create mismatches on the perimeter, while David Lee and Andrew Bogut are in good physical shape and contributing a lot as well. Therefore, I believe that Philadelphia's poor defense won't be able to stop them in here. Miami's offense shot 16-40 (40%) 3pts against Philadelphia, but then the Sixers allowed just a combined of 12-40 3pts to the Wizards and Bulls in the following games. However, these two teams aren't good jump shooting teams that can't take advantage of the wide open looks on the outside, something that won't happen tonight with the Warriors.
All three wins of Philadelphia happened on comebacks led by rookie PG Michael Carter-Williams, however now that the surprise factor is gone, coach Mark Jackson won't have doubts in putting Andre Iguodala guarding him if needed. However, it's important to note that Philadelphia will eventually score a decent number of points in here, as Golden State continues a bit prone to commit turnovers and they are also showing a subpar defensive rebounding right now. So, Philadelphia has a good edge to score in transition and second chance points in here. But with Carter-Williams not having a surprise effect anymore and with the Warriors having a great defender to stop him, I believe Philadelphia won't be able to do in here what they did to the Bulls last Saturday, especially as the Warriors have a much better offensive flow and outside shooting than the Bulls. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for Golden State tonight on a shootout and so, I'll be taking both the Warriors and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Golden State Warriors (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 505 Boston Celtics @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #3
Unlike some lowly teams that are surprising the league early on the season, Boston is fulfilling the expectations in being poor this season. I took the Over on their game yesterday, as I expected Detroit's frontcourt to have a mega edge over Boston's poor frontcourt and that happened, as the Pistons scored 54 points in the paint, while Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond had a combined of 21-42 (50%) FG and 29 rebounds, crushing the Celtics on the boards battle. In theory, Boston would have the edge against Detroit's bad perimeter defense, especially considering that the Pistons' starting backcourt is formed by Chauncey Billups and Will Bynum, but that didn't happen. In fact, Boston struggled terribly on the perimeter and couldn't even hold on to the ball with 24 turnovers committed!
Three games later, the Celtics have just 43 assists for 63 turnovers! That's an average of 14.3 assists per game versus 21.0 turnovers per game! These problems will certainly continue tonight, as Memphis's frontcourt will dominate like Detroit did last night with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph dominating down low, while the Celtics's terrible ball handling will be exposed by the Grizzlies' good ball pressure defense that had 10 and 12 steals on their last two games. Memphis has been having some natural issues on offense early on the season, as they are implementing a new system, but they are also struggling on defense in stopping opposing guards to penetrate and attack the rim. But that's something that won't be explored tonight by Boston, as they don't have players to explore this area like Tony Parker or Monta Ellis did in the Grizzlies' previous games. So, Memphis's defense will just have to pack the paint tonight and let Boston continuously miss their jump shots, as they are shooting just 10-45 3pts so far on this season. Therefore, we have every condition for an easy win for Memphis tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (-11,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 507 Houston Rockets @ 508 Los Angeles Clippers
Plays #4 & 5
We have a big game on the Western Conference tonight, with the totals line being a bit overrated given the reputation of both teams' offense, but the truth is that they are still from their best right now, especially Houston. With Omer Asik playing almost 30 minutes per game, it will take time for Houston to have a good offensive flow. Of course they are still very good on giving the ball to James Harden and doing pick and rolls with Dwight Howard, something that's enough to beat 80% of the league, but I have to mention the fact that they had just 17, 17 and 16 assists on their first three games of the season. Inconsistency has been the key word for the Rockets this season, who played two excellent halves of basketball on their first three games of the season (first half vs Dallas; second half vs Utah), three passable halves and a horrible first half against Utah. This isn't a great sign when their opponents were Charlotte, Dallas and Utah.
On the other hand, the Clippers' seem to be more advanced on their offense than Houston right now. Their offensive flow has been clearly better with 27, 27 and 26 assists on their first three games of the season than Rockets plus the matchup between Chris Paul and Jeremy Lin will be clearly favorable to the LA team. Patrick Beverley's absence is a big blow for the Rockets tonight at the PG position as well. Houston's defense has been struggling on positioning and they have allowed 12, 16 and 15 offensive rebounds to their opponents so far on this season. These are way too many second chances given to their opponents for a team that has Dwight Howard and Omer Asik on their starting lineup. I believe this will be a physical game between two teams that know that they will be facing a big contender for the top of their conference at the end of the regular season. However, the Clippers seem to be clearly ahead on form than the Rockets and so, I expect them to pick up a nice comfortable win in here. I believe this game will be surprisingly low scoring as well for the reasons I mentioned before and so, I'll be taking both the Clippers and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 210,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 508 Los Angeles Clippers (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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