NBA - 701 Los Angeles Clippers @ 702 Miami Heat
Play #1
The Clippers are coming from a loss last night at Orlando, where they showed a clear lazy approach to the game:
"To me it's like the basketball gods said: If you don't play hard all game, I'm not rewarding you. You're not winning this game." Doc Rivers said. "That's how it almost felt. It was like the basketball gods punished us tonight for not being ready to play all game. I thought we were very casual in our approach tonight, and that's on me." Doc Rivers said. "I always got to get them ready, and I didn't. Obviously, coming out of halftime we did [get ready] and we were a different basketball team."
But in my opinion, this wasn't just a question of effort. The Clippers are indeed struggling defensively, especially on the perimeter, where Chris Paul is their only good defender, with Matt Barnes out with injury. The Magic took advantage of that to shoot 6-8 FG on cuts and then, the Clippers' frontcourt can't also defend effectively, allowing a team like Orlando to shoot 15-21 FG near the basket against them! The Clippers' second unit is also poor, they lack any decent interior player and Jamal Crawford hasn't been efficient on leading the unit off the bench neither. On offense, the Clippers missed a bunch of wide open shots with a poor 3-19 3pts. The Clippers struggled on everything that was related with pure shooting: 3-14 FG on spot ups and 2-7 FG on off screens!
For tonight's game, I think the Clippers' defense will struggle a lot. Their perimeter defense isn't good at all, especially at the SF and SG positions, especially the two positions where Lebron James and Dwyane Wade play. The Clippers' poor rim protection will also be exposed, as they are allowing 16.6 FG made per game and 67.9% FG at the rim this season. Miami's well oiled offensive machine won't have problems in pounding them down low. Chris Bosh likes to play away from the painted area and this will remove Blake Griffin from near the basket, something that will make the LA team even more exposed to Miami's good ball movement that is coming from two games in a row where they had more than 30 assists on each game! On a prime time game at home, Miami will be fired up and they will pound the Clippers' defense tonight.
Now looking at the Clippers' offense, they are also a great offensive team. They scored 90 points at Orlando, but they missed shots that they would score in a normal game. The key in here will be what Chris Paul will be capable of doing, as the LA team has no backup plan besides having Paul at a great level on pick and rolls. The bad news for the Clippers is that Miami's defense is excellent on pressuring the ball handlers and even though Paul will certainly have decent numbers, this won't be a walk in the park like Paul has been having on every game so far on this season. I know that we are still talking of a small sample, but Miami is #1 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense! The Heat might have some problems on rebounding as usual, but the Clippers are "just" #9 in the league so far with a 27.4% offensive rebound rate. However, Miami will have a huge edge on their second unit over the Clippers, as the reigning champions have bench players like Norris Cole, Ray Allen, Chris Andersen and Shane Battier that have a good chemistry together, something that is yet to happen on the Clippers.
On a back to back spot for the LA team, I expect Miami to control the game and then explode in the score with a run when both second units are on the court, allowing the Heat to pick up an easy win in here. Therefore, I'll be taking Miami tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Miami Heat (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Atlanta Hawks @ 704 Denver Nuggets
Plays #2 & 3
Atlanta is one of the best teams in the league on offensive flow so far on this season. They are passing well the ball and they dished 26 assists on their last game against Sacramento, a similar number to their season average of 25.8 assists per game. This is happening due to their frontcourt formed by Al Horford and Paul Millsap that every time they get a nice look from mid-range, they don't think twice in shooting and they do it with good efficiency as well. This is why the Hawks shot 10-12 FG at the rim against the Kings, while shooting 12-27 FG from 4-9 feet! A huge volume! This can be a problem for Denver tonight, who have Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee on the frontcourt and their defense is poor when they need to leave the rim.
The Hawks' biggest struggles at Sacramento came from the Kings' transition plays, where they scored 29 fast break points, while shooting 12-17 FG and 1.53 PPP on transitions. In fact, Atlanta also choked the game away at the end mostly due to Isiah Thomas scoring 18 points on his own on that quarter by always attacking off the dribble, going to the rim and then scoring by taking advantage of Atlanta's poor interior protection. With Atlanta on a final game road trip after playing at LA against the Lakers and at Sacramento, Denver with Ty Lawson has a good shot of doing exactly the same that Isiah Thomas did to them on their last game. Atlanta's defense is just #27 on transitions and #21 on pick and roll ball handler plays and this is why they got crushed at Dallas on their season opener as well.
On the other hand, Denver is coming from a home loss against San Antonio, where their coach Brian Shaw showed concern over his team not pushing the pace enough:
"We were content in just bringing the ball up and running plays." said Brian Shaw. "We only got nine fast-break points against a Spurs team that ... Ty [Lawson] and Tony Parker, quickness wise, they cancel each other out, but I thought that we should be able to outrun some of their veteran players. We were content with coming down and setting up." said Brian Shaw. "And for whatever reason we just kept throwing the ball inside to the bigs and just standing around on the perimeter in the second half and that's not how we play."
Brian Shaw is correct, as San Antonio shot 10-18 FG on transitions, while Denver had just 5-10 FG! The Nuggets' offense disappeared during the fourth quarter and they scored just 16 points in that quarter. Denver will definitely push the pace tonight in order to take advantage of the physical edge of facing an Atlanta team on the final game of their road trip and that doesn't have a lot of depth, especially with Dennis Schroder suspended. Atlanta with an undersized frontcourt will struggle against Denver's offensive style and the Hawks' struggles on transition defense will also be a huge problem for them against a Nuggets fired up team tonight. I expect an easy win for Denver in here in a very fast paced game with good offensive efficiency from both teams and so, I'll be taking both the Nuggets and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Denver Nuggets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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