NFL Week 9 - 405 New Orleans Saints @ 406 New York Jets
Play #1
New Orleans seems like a different team this season with Rob Ryan as their defensive coordinator. After several seasons where they were one of the best offenses in the league, but also one of the worst defenses in the league, things are different this season. New Orleans is still a good offensive team (28.0 points per game), but they are also one of the best in terms of points allowed (17.1), mostly due to a new 3-4 scheme that focus on getting to the QB and forcing mistakes. This is why they have a +8 turnover differential this season (#4 in the NFL) and they lead the NFC with 3.4 sacks per game. So, the Saints' defense should cause a lot of problems to Geno Smith today, who has been sacked 28 times and intercepted 13 times so far on this season. The only chance the Jets have to cause some problems to New Orleans's defense is on their running game, where the Saints' defense is more vulnerable. However, with RB Mike Goodson lost for the season and with Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory disappointing so far, the Jets' running game will burn the clock a lot today, but they won't have a lot of efficiency on really moving the football and in scoring points. Overall I don't expect the Jets' offense to have a big game today, especially against a team that has only allowed more than 20 points on a game to New England this season.
On the other hand, things won't be very easy for the Saints' offense either. We know that Drew Brees will eventually find Marcus Colston or Jimmy Graham for a couple of big plays today, but the Jets still have a good secondary even though they lost Darrelle Revis in the offseason. All pressure on the Saints' offense will be on the passing game, as New Orleans's running game has been very unimpressive so far this season and they will be facing a team that has been a complete wall on their run defense (3.1 Y/C allowed, #1 in the NFL by a mile!). So, I believe this game will eventually be a relatively low scoring one, with the Jets burning the clock a lot with the running back, but lacking the quality to actually put a lot of points on the scoreboard, while the Saints will eventually pick up a pair of big plays, but they won't have an easy matchup today against a generally solid Jets defense that will want to bounce back after last week's debacle at Cincinnati. Considering all of this, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 405/406 Under 46 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 9 - 407 Tennessee Titans @ 408 St Louis Rams
Play #2
St Louis is coming from a brutal effort against Seattle last Monday Night. With Sam Bradford out for the season, the Rams are now being forced to start under center Kellen Clemens, who not only has no business in being a starting QB in the NFL, as he is also struggling with a shoulder injury right now. St Louis's running game had a decent performance against the Seahawks mostly thanks to RB Zac Stacy, who had 26 carries and made such an effort that he is actually struggling with a foot injury right now. Behind him on the RB depth chart, also Daryl Richardson (foot) and Benny Cuningham (ankle) are struggling with injuries right now. So, with a poor QB and three banged up RB's, the Rams will struggle to make any impact on offense in today's game, especially after such an effort against Seattle last Monday.
Tennessee is coming from a bye week, so the physical edge for them over the tired Rams will be huge today. Jake Locker has been quite decent this season for his level, even though he has already suffered a sprained MCL and a hip injury during this season. The Titans' offensive line is a decent unit as well and they should be able to limit the damage caused by St Louis's pass rush, especially when their best pass rusher Robert Quinn (10 sacks) is questionable for today due to illness and hasn't practiced all week. With Chris Johnson facing an unimpressive Rams' run defense (4.1 Y/C allowed - #21 in the NFL), I believe the Titans will score a good enough number of points today to pick up a comfortable win over a tired Rams team that has no offensive firepower right now. So, I'll be taking Tennessee today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 407 Tennessee Titans (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 9 - 413 Philadelphia Eagles @ 414 Oakland Raiders
Play #3
Philadelphia will have Nick Foles back today and I expect that with Foles back under center, the Eagles will finally play some decent offense against an unimpressive Raiders offense. After two really poor performances on offense against Dallas and the NY Giants, the Eagles will be surely fired up to bounce back today against a team that is allowing the opposing quarterbacks to have a 67.6% completion percentage against them (#30 in the NFL).
On the other hand, it's important to mention how well the Eagles defense has actually played over the last two weeks. Their pass defense is still having some issues, but Terrelle Pryor isn't a big threat on throwing big passing plays anyway. What Pryor likes to do is to run, but against Chip Kelly who has plenty of experience on read-option and running quarterbacks, I expect the Eagles defense to be well prepared to stop Pryor today.
After two divisional losses in a row at home, I expect the Eagles to come fired up today and win this game. Nick Foles will surely have good opportunities to make some good passing plays today, while the Eagles' running game led by LeSean McCoy will test Oakland's good run defense as well. As I expect Terrelle Pryor to struggle today against the Eagles defense, I believe Philadelphia has every condition necessary to bounce back and pick up an important road win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 413 Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 9 - 401 Atlanta Falcons @ 402 Carolina Panthers
NFL Week 9 - 403 Minnesota Vikings @ 404 Dallas Cowboys
Play #4
***2-Team 6,5 Points Teaser***
Atlanta's offense is a complete mess right now and all because of injuries. Without both Roddy White and Julio Jones, Matt Ryan has no quality receivers around him, besides veteran TE Tony Gonzalez and the slot receiver Harry Douglas. With Steven Jackson also struggling, the Falcons offense suddenly became a very poor unit, after years of dominance around the league. This is especially worrying as they will face a Carolina defense that is #5 in the league on weighted defense and so, they won't have problems in stopping Atlanta's offense today. On the other side, Cam Newton played extremely well against Tampa Bay last week and he has another great matchup today against a poor Falcons defense that is #27 in the NFL on both Y/P and Y/C allowed. With Jonathan Stewart back today to help the Panthers' running game as well, I expect Carolina to pick up a comfortable home win over their divisional rival.
If Minnesota isn't a good team when healthy, things only get worse when they aren't like today. Besides the whole QB fiasco (Christian Ponder is back under center for today), the Vikings' secondary is now missing FS Harrison Smith, SS Jamarca Sanford and CB Chris Cook! Even though Dallas will be playing without Miles Austin today, the Cowboys' passing game will still be too good for the depleted Vikings secondary. Therefore, I expect Dallas to pick up a good amount of points today. On the other side, Adrian Peterson keeps struggling and the whole QB situation isn't helping him one bit as well. So, we can't expect anything good coming from Minnesota's offense once again today and therefore, I have to believe that Dallas will pick up an easy win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 402 Carolina Panthers (-1,5) x 404 Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
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