NBA - 701 Boston Celtics @ 702 Detroit Pistons
Play #1
I have to say that I was impressed with Detroit's offensive performance at Memphis. On their first game of the season, they had a mega edge on the inside against Washington's frontcourt that lost Nene Hilario mid-game and they took advantage of that to score 56 points in the paint. Then, at Memphis, against a much tougher matchup, Detroit scored the same 56 points in the paint with Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond all having solid all numbers numbers. Even though Detroit plays with a big lineup, they have been good on transitions with 25 fast break points scored against the Grizzlies!
Now against Boston, I expect this great edge down low from Detroit to continue, as Boston with the rookie Vitor Faverani, Brandon Bass and Kelly Olynyk aren't a good interior defense at all. Zaza Pachulia eat them alive on Boston's last game with 5-10 FG, 10-10 FT, 20 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists, so I can only believe that Detroit will have another solid offensive game on down low tonight. Detroit's problem is located on the backcourt, as both Chauncey Billups and Will Bynum are struggling on defense. They made Tony Allen look like a great offensive SG with 7-12 FG, 7-7 FT and 22 points, besides the fact that Pistons has allowed 16 treys in just two games! Boston's offense needs Avery Bradley and Jeff Green to be productive and they have favorable matchups to do that in here. I expect a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Washington Wizards @ 704 Miami Heat
Play #2
Washington is coming from a poor home loss against Philadelphia, thanks to a meltdown late in the game. Of course their head coach Randy Wittman wasn't happy with that:
"Well, you tell me what you thought the problem was. You watched the game. Commitment to f***ing playing defense" said Randy Wittman.
The Wizards were crushed by Detroit's frontcourt on their season debut and then they thought that they could outgun the Sixers on a complete wild run and gun game that ended with a ridiculous pace factor of 103! Washington led most of the game, but then allowed a 17-4 run, something that made them nervous and unable to control the game down the stretch.
Worse than that, Washington is currently dealing with several injury problems. Nene Hilario is a game time decision with a calf injury, John Wall is struggling with back spasms and Marcin Gortat is still adjusting to his new team's schemes. But after the coach's rant after their last game, I expect Washington to try to make a bigger defensive effort today, even though it's never easy to do that against Miami.
Curiously, Miami is coming from two games where they played lazy defense as well. Their game at Philadelphia was similar to the game that the Wizards had against the Sixers, where Miami's had a super lazy defensive commitment, as they thought that they would outgun Philadelphia. Then against Brooklyn, Miami simply couldn't fight against Brooklyn's huge size edge and grabbed just 44.8% of the rebounds! This won't happen tonight and with the Heat's usual defensive pressure on the ball handler, I believe that John Wall (if he plays) and the rest of the Wizards' offense will struggle to be efficient, as Miami will certainly show good effort on defense after two losses in a row.
So, this will be a game between two teams that will be looking to make a defensive bounce back. Curiously, they have decent matchups to do that in here. Washington's lack of interior size won't be explored by Miami's undersized lineup, while this lack of size from the Wizards will actually be beneficial to defend Miami. I expect a relatively low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 199,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 705 Brooklyn Nets @ 706 Orlando Magic
Play #3
I believe Brooklyn has a good matchup to pick up an easy tonight. The Nets have been playing well on offense early on this season and I don't expect them to have problems in scoring a considerable number of points against Orlando's poor defense. This is especially truth as this game is likely to be played on a fast pace, where there will be more space on the field for the Nets' players to use their individual talent to pound the lowly Magic.
On the other side, I expect Orlando to struggle especially on the frontcourt. The Magic struggled heavily against Indiana on their season opener by suffering 18 blocks and they were only competitive for most of the game due to Indiana's second unit struggles that allowed Orlando to have a big second quarter. That won't happened tonight, as the Nets have one of the best benches in the league. I believe the Nets are motivated to start the season in excellent fashion and on a nice matchup for them against a lowly team, they won't facilitate, especially after losing at Cleveland on their season opener. Therefore, I'll be taking the Nets in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Brooklyn Nets (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 710 New York Knicks
Play #4
For today's game, Mike Woodson will use a big lineup with Andrea Bargnani at the PF position to matchup with Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love. I don't know if these are good news for the Knicks, as Love is one of the best rebounders in the league and he will matchup with one of the worst rebounds in Bargnani! A big lineup for the Knicks means that Carmelo Anthony will be back at the SF position. The Knicks' offense was good last season due to the mismatch that putting Melo at the PF position would cause on the opponents, so now that he is back at the SF position, the floor spacing of the team won't be as good. The Knicks attempted to do this at Chicago last Thursday and even though it was a close game, the Knicks were outscored by 9 points when Bargnani was on the floor! This uncertainty on the Knicks' lineup and style is causing issues to their main offensive strength: their 3pts shooting! Last season the Knicks set a record by scoring 891 threes, but so far they have just made 12 treys on their first two games of the seasons.
Minnesota is coming from a mega win against Oklahoma City, where they played great in both ends of the floor. Kevin Love is back and together with the newcomer Kevin Martin, Ricky Rubio has now legitimate offensive players to pass the ball and move the chains in Minnesota. Rubio is also a great defensive player and he shutdown Reggie Jackson with 5 steals! For today's game, I expect a big mismatch on rebounding favoring Minnesota with Kevin Love having a tremendous edge over the Knicks. Raymond Felton will have a tough matchup against Ricky Rubio and the presumable lack of the offensive flow from the Knicks will allow the Wolves to have a decent defensive game today. I believe that Minnesota is currently playing better than the NY Knicks, so the line isn't set where it should be and therefore, I'll be taking Minnesota tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Minnesota Timberwolves (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 711 Atlanta Hawks @ 712 Los Angeles Lakers
Play #5
This is a game that has everything to be a nice offensive game, given the playing style of both teams in trying to push the pace! After a big win over the Clippers on the opening night, the Lakers were crushed at Golden State on a tough back to back spot, while on their last game they couldn't score more than 85 points against San Antonio, who has a good perimeter defense and that knows how to play against small teams. The Lakers' offense depends a lot from their guards and they shot just 8-27 3pts with Steve Blake, Steve Nash and Eric Young shooting a combined of 4-23 FG! Things will be different today, as the Lakers will face Atlanta who is far from being a good defensive team. On their season debut in Dallas, they allowed Monta Ellis to shoot 11-17 FG and Vince Carter 9-16 FG, with Dallas shooting a combined of 11-24 3pts! So, the Hawks are definitely a good matchup for the Lakers' offense in order for them to have a good game.
On the other side, Atlanta has also everything to have a nice offensive game tonight. Both Paul Millsap and Al Horford are too quick for Pau Gasol and Mike D'Antoni doesn't really care about the team's interior defense, so both players will be productive today. With their mobile lineup, the Hawks won't be afraid to run up and down with the Lakers. Atlanta with Jeff Teague will have an edge speed against any Lakers guard, while Kyle Korver will have space to make some treys as well. Both teams have been playing really fast this season, so I expect a fast paced game in here, with both teams being quite productive on offense. This means that we have all the right ingredients for a massive shootout tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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