NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #1
Miami is coming from a home win against Dallas last night, where they were indeed able to create problems on Dallas's pick and rolls, with the Heat being aggressive on pressuring the ball handler as usual. This is why Miami ended the game with 19 steals, while Dallas committed 24 turnovers! However, the game was relatively close because Dallas had an excellent outside shooting game with 8-12 FG from 16-23 feet and 12-28 3pts! Miami's offense did whatever they wanted with Dallas's defense, who just couldn't stop both Lebron James and Dwyane Wade from penetrating and easily scoring near the basket.
On the other hand, Charlotte is coming from back to back road wins! They won at Cleveland last night against a Cavaliers team that has been struggling a lot on offense this season and that couldn't handle Charlotte's underrated defense. Not only the Bobcats pressured Kyrie Irving well, who ended the game with just 5-16 FG, as they closed well on the outside, an area that is generally Charlotte's weakness on defense, by forcing the Cavs to shoot just 4-15 3pts! Offensively, without Al Jefferson, Charlotte's guards had a heavy load once again, with Kemba Walker showing once again that he is struggling offensively by shooting just 4-19 FG!
Regarding tonight's game, I believe Charlotte's defense will do a much better job than Dallas did, especially regarding the interior defense. Dallas is allowing their opponents to shoot 64% FG near the basket, while Charlotte has been excellent by allowing just 57% FG! Charlotte has also better wing defenders than Dallas, something that makes me believe that Miami's offense won't have a walk in the park tonight like they had last night. On the other side, I also expect Charlotte to struggle offensively. Their offense is clearly perimeter oriented with their guards using a lot of pick and rolls and Miami's defense is an elite unit on this area. The only area where Miami's defense struggles is on long range shooting like Dallas showed last night, but Charlotte is a subpar team on this area. Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Dallas Mavericks @ 504 Orlando Magic
Play #2
I really doubt Dallas's offensive skills when they are on bad spots like tonight due to the fact that they are a jump shooting team. In fact, on their last two road games where they were also on a back to back spot, the Mavericks scored just 93 points at Oklahoma City and then 91 points at Milwaukee. Yesterday on their game at Miami, Dirk Nowitzki played 36 minutes, Jose Calderon 35 minutes and Monta Ellis 42 minutes! Orlando's defense lacks some size on the frontcourt, but they are a quite decent perimeter defensive team, as shown with the fact that they are #5 in the league on 3pts defense with just 31.6% 3pts allowed, something that will cause problems for Dallas's offense that is prone to struggle on this kind of spots, as they are a jump shooting unit.
On the other hand, Orlando has been quite competitive for their expectations before the start of the season especially due to their defense, as their offense has been indeed quite poor lately, with an average offensive rating of just 101.3 over their last four games! Nikola Vucevic is the only Magic player who can guarantee some easy points scored near the basket, with the rest of the lineup being formed by jump shooters, something that Dallas will like as they were completely crushed by Miami's dribble drive penetrations last night, something that won't happen tonight against Orlando. Therefore, I expect a relatively low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 204,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 511 Denver Nuggets @ 512 Houston Rockets
Plays #3 & 4
Denver had their best win of the season so far last night against Minnesota. Unlike the Wolves who used a tight rotation, the Nuggets went deep on their bench by using 11 players and all of them with at least 10 minutes! The Nuggets have been faithful to their game plan over the last three games by clearly winning the boards battle in all of them. Their offensive is also pounding their opponents down low with 60 and 64 points scored in the paint over the last two games. This will be a problem for Houston tonight, as they benched Omer Asik and they are now playing with Dwight Howard as their only big man. If we add to this the Rockets' usual lazy perimeter defense leaving their opposing guards to penetrate off the dribble, then the Nuggets have a good spot for their offense tonight! Houston is allowing 59.5% FG at the rim and 41% FG from 4-9 feet, so Denver should have a clear edge on this area tonight!
Houston is returning home after a very tough 3-game road trip, where several players battled illnesses, Omer Asik saw pretty much his tenure on Houston ending, while the team played two overtime games in the road trip, with the only game not going to overtime being also a close one at NY against the Knicks, where they only won the game down the stretch. Therefore, I don't expect them to be physically at 100% for tonight. Of course that Houston's offense will have a clear edge on pick and rolls, but I don't believe the edge Houston's offense will have in here will be enough for a blowout win, as Denver will also have their own offensive edges in here. Therefore, I expect this game to be a close one, with both offenses having a lot of production, so I'll be taking both the Nuggets and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 212,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Denver Nuggets (+8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 513 Boston Celtics @ 514 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #5
Boston is coming from a home loss against Portland last night, on a game where the Blazers' plan worked perfectly for them. Portland made sure to limit Boston's transition plays as much as possible by giving up on trying to grab offensive rebounds. With no easy fast break points, Boston's offense struggled and they had an offensive rating of just 99.6! They were only able to score a considerable amount of points because the game had a fast pace of 97! Also Portland's poor post up defense allowed Jared Sullinger to have a good game with 11-18 FG and 26 points!
Minnesota is also coming from a loss last night, but at Denver on a super fast paced game. As usual, Rick Adelman used a tight rotation with just eight players and with all starters being on court for at least 34 minutes! I believe that the Wolves will struggle tonight. This isn't an easy spot for them, as they played back to back games at LA against the Lakers and the Clippers, then they went back home to face Cleveland, just to play at Denver last night and come back home once again to face Boston on a back to back game!
The Wolves's perimeter defense has been subpar on protecting dribble penetrations, something that the Celtics do a lot. With Corey Brewer, Kevin Martin and J.J. Barea playing heavy minutes, it doesn't matter how well Ricky Rubio defends, as he can't be everywhere! Boston might struggle on rebounding tonight, but they have a better spot, they rotate the team batter and I believe fatigue will be the key in here. Boston's transition defense is very good and this will also cause problems to Minnesota's offense. I expect Boston to keep this game close due to Minnesota's tough physical spot and so, I'll be taking the Celtics in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Boston Celtics (+9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 515 Philadelphia 76ers @ 516 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #6
New Orleans is coming from a road loss at Utah, where their defense took a vacation and didn't show up in the game against the Jazz. I was expecting that the Pelicans would stop Utah's offense in that game, as they had been horrible on long range shooting, but the truth is that Utah had a nice 9-22 (41%) 3pts in that game! New Orleans will now host Philadelphia tonight and the Sixers are a team that shoots a lot of treys per game, but they are quite inefficient as shown yesterday, where they shot just 5-19 3pts on a road loss last night at Atlanta. With Michael Carter-Williams still out due to a foot injury, things get much tougher for the Sixers's offense. They had just a 104 offensive rating yesterday against the Hawks, but they managed to score 103 points due to the game being played on a super fast pace. I believe New Orleans's defense will have a favorable matchup tonight, especially with Philadelphia playing their third game in four nights while being on a back to back spot and coming from two super fast paced games against Houston (that went to overtime) and Atlanta.
On the other side, the Pelicans is struggling on spacing their offense. Ryan Anderson will make his season debut tonight, but he will be of course quite rusty. Philadelphia is coming from a game at Atlanta where they got crushed by the Hawks' long range shooting and where they also couldn't stop Jeff Teague. However, New Orleans barely attempts three pointers on their games, so Philadelphia will be able to collapse their defense, pack the paint and make things tough for the Pelicans' offense tonight. Therefore, I believe both teams will struggle more on offense than the line is currently showing and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 517 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 518 Milwaukee Bucks
Play #7
I can only feel sorry for Milwaukee right now, as they are super shorthanded due to injuries and they are in a tough spot for tonight, as they will play their fourth game in five days, with most of them being against top teams. In fact, three of these games were against Miami, Indiana and now Oklahoma City! Milwaukee's offense is almost exclusively a jump shooting squad, as they can't create any kind of an inside game, but with them being so one-dimensional, it's rather easy to defend them.
Oklahoma City is coming from back to back road losses at LA against the Clippers and at Golden State in a buzzer beat, so they will come to this game on a bounce back mode. The biggest edge that the Thunder will have tonight will be on athleticism. Milwaukee is committing a lot of turnovers as expected (18.3 per game over their last four games) and they will face a team tonight that will put a lot of pressure on the ball handler. Oklahoma City will also have huge mismatches with their two top players in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who will be defended by the inexperienced Khris Middleton/Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nate Wolters. Therefore, I can only expect an easy win for the Thunder and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Oklahoma City Thunder (-10,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 521 Brooklyn Nets @ 522 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #8
Brooklyn is coming from a tough road win at Phoenix last night, where they only won the game on overtime. The game was played at a really slow pace (85) and it was clear once again that Phoenix's perimeter defense is indeed pretty much, with the Nets only having a clear offensive edge down low with Brook Lopez was once again great with 9-16 FG and 9-10 FT! However, Lopez tweaked his ankle during the game and he is questionable for tonight. Even if he plays, he won't be at 100% and that's a huge blow for the Nets, who won't have Deron Williams also available for tonight.
The Clippers are coming from three wins against Western top teams, where they had to do a lot of running, as they faced Houston, Minnesota and Oklahoma City, three teams who love to run! So, all these three games were fast paced and on this context, the Clippers are indeed a very good team. However, I doubt that the same will happen tonight, given the Nets' roster and also their poor spot. The Clippers' defense has been struggling due to their inability of their guards to avoid getting outplayed on the outside. Their team help defense has been subpar as well, but they also faced Miami, Houston, Minnesota and Oklahoma City in a row, four very good offenses! Brooklyn's perimeter is a very slow unit, so it will be much easier for the Clippers to have a decent defensive game tonight. I believe this game won't have the huge amount of points that the totals line is currently predicting and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Under 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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