NBA - 713 Detroit Pistons @ 714 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #2
As I mentioned before, Memphis is trying to implement a new offensive philosophy this season: more uptempo and less post-centric. However, the truth is that they had 27 points scored at half time against San Antonio! The Grizzlies' offense bounced back on the second half with 31+36 points scored, but that was due to the fact that Tim Duncan got injured early in the third quarter and without him, the Spurs lack a decent interior defensive player.
Something similar happened with Detroit on their season debut against Washington. The Wizards were forced to play undersized on their frontcourt with Trevor Booker and Nene Hilario, but then Nene got injured mid-game and Marcin Gortat was sent into the court, even though he is still adjusting to his new team's schemes. The result of that was an offensive party by the Pistons frontcourt who dominated with Josh Smith shooting 8-12 FG, Andre Drummond 6-7 FG and Greg Monroe 6-15 FG + 12-15 FT! Detroit scored a combined of 56 points in the paint!
Both teams won't have the same performances on offense tonight, as both frontcourt should be able to do at least a decent defensive job in here. Therefore, I expect this game to be a low scoring one given their lack of offensive talent on their backcourts as well. So, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Play #3
Minnesota is coming from a home win over Orlando on overtime, where their offense looked good in the first half and much worse during the second half. Both Kevin Love and Kevin Martin didn't impress on offense, while the team's outside shooting continued pretty much as poor as last season. Their defense struggled with Orlando shooting 47% FG and with the Wolves' perimeter defense being quite poor, especially on screens.
On the other side, Oklahoma City is coming from a road win at Utah on a game that they should have lost. The Thunder's offense is definitely struggling against Russell Westbrook and they had just 9 assists the whole game! They scored 101 points due to the 29-33 FT and 25 fast break points, as they couldn't score on half court sets. Kevin Durant was definitely helped by the umpires during the game and ended with 22-24 FT, on a game where he was well defended by Utah. However, it's easy to defend Oklahoma City right now, as Serge Ibaka is struggling on offense (4-15 FG) and the rest of them besides Durant isn't a threat on the offensive end.
For tonight's game, I believe that both teams will actually struggle on offense in here. Oklahoma City's offense without Russell Westbrook is completely dependent from Kevin Durant, so all the opponents need to do to stop them is to double or even triple team Durant to make the Thunder's offense struggle. Oklahoma City needs their opponents to make silly mistakes to take advantage of them with fast breaks, but that won't happen tonight, as Minnesota led by Ricky Rubio is quite good in avoiding errors. On the other hand, Minnesota's offense is completely dependent from their offense near the paint, as their outside shooting continues to struggle a lot. The Thunder's interior defense is quite good with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, so I expect the Wolves' offense to struggle tonight. With both teams struggling on offense and with such a high totals line, we have excellent value in taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 721 Utah Jazz @ 722 Phoenix Suns
Play #4
Utah lost their season debut game at home against Oklahoma City, but they actually showed a good offensive flow with 25 assists on 35 FG made! Derrick Favors, John Lucas and Gordon Hayward had 5 assists each, while Alec Burks had 6! This shows that Utah is playing team basketball and that's a good sign for the team's future! Their defense was also quite good and they only lost the game due to some inexperience against one of the top teams in the league. The Jazz's defense was especially good near the rim, where the Thunder just couldn't get any good look to score.
Phoenix is coming from an easy home win against Portland, in a game where the Blazers' defense was ridiculously bad. Portland with Damian Lillard and Mo Williams together on the backcourt is a defensive disaster, while the poor defense at the Center position also allowed the Suns to easily score throughout the whole game. The Suns didn't need to do a lot to easily win that game, with Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Miles Plumlee taking advantage of the easy matchups to crush Portland.
Things will be much tougher for the Suns tonight. As I said, Utah is a fine defensive team and they will cause a lot more problems to Phoenix's offense that isn't such a great unit. On the other hand, Derrick Favors will have a clear edge on offense over Channing Frye. Utah scored 56 points in the paint against the good interior defense of the Thunder and they will do something similar tonight to make this game at least highly competitive. Therefore, I'll be taking the Jazz plus the points in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721 Utah Jazz (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment