NBA Premium Card 11/22

NBA - 505 Washington Wizards @ 506 Toronto Raptors

Plays #1 & 2

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Washington is coming from a revenge win at Toronto, where they showed that their offense is indeed wonderful to watch when they have their starting lineup on court. They gave no chance to Cleveland by scoring from any possible way. The Cavaliers' offense struggled with little flow and they really didn't know what to do, with Kyrie Irving being too much off the ball on the first half and as soon as Cleveland would miss a shot, Washington would grab the defensive rebound and they jump into super quick transition plays where they would make dunks, layups and wide open shots. Once again, the only area where Washington's offense needs improvement is on John Wall's scoring ability, as they shot as a team 1-14 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays mostly thanks to Wall's inefficiency with 6-16 FG!

Besides that, Washington also struggled when their backups entered the game but that fourth quarter letdown was normal, as they were on a back to back game and they had played a run and gun game against Minnesota the night before. On the other hand, the Wizards' defense is far from being a decent unit. Their pick and roll coverage is weak and this is how the Cavaliers made their run at the end.

Toronto is coming from a road win at Philadelphia last Wednesday, but their task got easier as Philadelphia didn't have Thaddeus Young available for that game due to personal problems. Philadelphia is a team that needs to create shots in transition and Young's absence combined with him being replaced by the heavy Daniel Orton turned the Sixers into a less effective team on fast breaks. However, they still scored 24 fast break points, but had a poor efficiency on transitions plays with just 5-17 FG and 0.76 PPP! Toronto showed that they can generate a better ball movement on uptempo games by having 24 assists on their 36 FG made. The key for their win was their good 3pts shooting with 14-29 3pts, as they barely attacked the paint with just 28 points scored in that area.

Therefore, this game between these two teams will be quite interesting indeed. I think it will be a tight game since the start, but I like more what the Wizards' offense will be doing in here than the opposite. Both Nene Hilario and Marcin Gortat will have an edge over the foul trouble Amir Johnson and especially over Jonas Valanciunas down low. Washington's good ball movement will expose a little Toronto's defense, as the last time the Raptors faced a good outside shooting team, they were incapable of defending on the perimeter well by allowing Portland to shoot 15-32 3pts! However, Toronto will also have some edge on offense, as Washington doesn't defend well pick and roll ball handler plays, an area where they are just #22 in the league while allowing 0.79 PPP. Their paint protection is also subpar, something that will open lanes for DeMar DeRozan's and Rudy Gay's penetrations into the basket. I expect this game to be a very good offensive game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Triple Dime Play! As I expect this game to be super close, I'll be also taking the Wizards in here on a Single Dime Play.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Washington Wizards (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 503 Milwaukee Bucks @ 504 Philadelphia 76ers

Play #3

***SPLIT THE WAGER***

Philadelphia without Thaddeus Young and with Michael Carter-Williams still banged up lack the offensive talent to compensate the terrible defense that they have. On their last game against Toronto, 40% of their offensive plays were isolations and transitions, something that shows us the state of their offense right now. Regarding their defense, any aggressive guard can have big games against them by penetrating into the basket and then the Sixers' poor team help defense allow their opponents to have big games from the outside.

"When you don't have Thaddeus, do you go big ball, do you go small ball?" coach Brett Brown said. "When you play that type of judgment game, it gets harder to manage those periods."

Milwaukee is finally having some players returning from injury. Both Caron Butler and Ersan Ilyasova are now back and the team is slowly getting healthy. On their last game against Portland, Luke Ridnour returned into the starting lineup, same with Caron Butler. However, I don't understand why Larry Drew refuses to start John Henson alongside Zaza Pachulia. The only positive thing coming from this decision is that the Bucks having two competent players in Henson and Ilyasova coming off the bench. Milwaukee was competent on their outside shooting against the Blazers with 7-15 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-14 3pts, but they were outrebounded, they committed more turnovers than Portland and allowed the Blazers to make 11 treys.

For tonight's game, I like Milwaukee in here, given how much Philadelphia will be missing Thaddeus Young once again. Milwaukee's decent outside shooting will allow them to crush the Sixers' poor perimeter defense and Philadelphia without Young struggles a lot on offense by insisting too much on transitions, an area where Milwaukee's defense is good by allowing just 11.3 fast break points per game. Therefore, I'll be taking Milwaukee tonight. Split the wager!

Pick: 1 unit on 503 Milwaukee Bucks ML @ +130 / 2.30 on Bookmaker

Pick: 2 units on 503 Milwaukee Bucks (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 501 Phoenix Suns @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #4

I took the Over on Charlotte's last game against Brooklyn, on a game where we had a push due to a super low scoring fourth quarter (12-21). The Bobcats without Al Jefferson burned the clock down the stretch, but their half court execution is so predictable that they couldn't score for three minutes in a row until Kemba Walker scored a couple of free throws with three seconds to go. As I predicted, the Bobcats had a mega edge in pick and rolls against the Nets' dreadful defense on this area, while Kemba Walker had his best game of the season so far with 12-20 FG and 31 points. Charlotte as a team shot 10-16 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and managed to score 52 points in the paint even without Al Jefferson! They didn't score more points due to their poor 18-30 FT and weak outside shooting numbers. Their defense continued excellent, but the Nets had a lot of demerit on their loss as 47.8% FG and 9-19 3pts should be good enough to win a game, but they lost because they were completely outrebounded by allowing 17 offensive rebounds to Charlotte, something weird given Brooklyn's size. The Nets also committed 19 turnovers and eventually lost the game.

On the other side, Phoenix is coming from two losses in a row against Sacramento. During their current four-game losing streak, the Suns are committing an average of 15.75 turnovers per game, possibly because of Eric Bledsoe's absence. Phoenix's offense is similar to Charlotte's given the fact that both teams use their aggressive guards who attack primarily via pick and rolls, while the Suns are also a brutal transition team by being #1 in the league on this area with 23.3 fast break points per game. On tonight's matchup, it's important to check how both teams defend pick and rolls, as both offenses need badly to perform well on this area. Phoenix is #22 in the league on pick and roll defense, while allowing 0.79 PPP. On the other hand, Al Jefferson will be back tonight and this will weaken the Bobcats' defense due to his lack of foot speed and mobility. Charlotte is #8 in the league on pick and roll defense, but they are regressing on transition defense and they are already #24 in the league while allowing 1.19 PPP! Charlotte has been facing slow paced teams lately (Boston #15 in pace factor, Cleveland #20, Miami #17, Chicago #19 and Brooklyn #22), but Phoenix is #12 in the league on pace factor. Therefore, I believe this game will be a relatively fast paced game with both offenses playing well and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 507 Indiana Pacers @ 508 Boston Celtics

Play #5

Indiana is coming from a nice overtime win at NY against the Knicks, where they struggled during some parts of the game. They tried too much to pound the Knicks down low mostly via David West, but that was so predictable that the Knicks managed to defend rather well the whole game. This lack of ability to feed the big men made David West and Roy Hibbert struggled with 4-13 FG and 2-5 FG respectively. In fact, Indiana was outrebounded on this game! This shows how much the Pacers' frontcourt surprisingly struggled on this game. What saved the Pacers in the end was their perimeter play with Paul George having another huge game! Indiana made a huge effort to win this game and that's visible in the minutes their starters played: David West 40 minutes, Paul George 49 minutes, Roy Hibbert 37 minutes, George Hill 43 minutes and Lance Stephenson 42 minutes.

Boston is coming from another road loss, this time at San Antonio where they managed to be competitive this time, after getting crushed at Minnesota and at Houston. Boston changed their starting lineup and Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk form the new starting frontcourt, in a move that allowed the team to gain more offense down low and more athleticism as well. So, it wasn't a surprise to see these two players combining 25 rebounds between them! Avery Bradley and Jeff Green also played well on the backcourt. Boston's problem was on defense as there are no miracles with these two kids on the frontcourt. The Celtics have now allowed 52, 60 and 48 points in the paint on their last three games!

For tonight's game, I believe Indiana's frontcourt will bounce back big time after their struggles against the Knicks. Nothing better than playing against Boston's terrible interior defense to achieve that. The Celtics are just #25 in the league on post up defense and they will get pounded by the Pacers tonight. It will also be tough for Indiana to have the same effort that they had against the Knicks, so I expect them to have a defensive letdown. Boston with their pick and rolls should also take advantage of their decent mid range game to cause some damage on Indiana's weakest link on defense. Therefore, I expect a relatively high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Atlanta Hawks @ 510 Detroit Pistons

Play #6

This is the second game of a home-home series between these two teams, as Atlanta defeated Detroit at home by 93-85 last Wednesday. The Hawks defended the Pistons in that way exactly how they should be defended in order to beat Detroit. They double the post when it was necessary, they kept the opposing guards out of the lane and forced Detroit to shoot from the outside. The result of that was Detroit shooting 4-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-22 3pts for a combined of 10-39 FG on these two areas! That's 25.6%!

For tonight's game, I think that some adjustments made by the Pistons will be decisive. It won't be tough for Detroit to make these adjustments by the way. Atlanta shot 51% FG last Wednesday and they only still scored 93 points as they were completely outrebounded plus committed 23 turnovers! Detroit will predictably have these two edges once again tonight, so Atlanta will need to shoot extremely well once again to remain competitive. However, the big difference will be in Detroit's offense this time around. Atlanta will pack the paint once again and make quick double teams to Detroit's frontcourt players, however I believe that Detroit will be quicker on their offensive execution tonight, while their outside shooting is unlikely to be as horrible as it was last Wednesday. Therefore, this is a nice spot for a revengeful and comfortable win for the Pistons and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Detroit Pistons (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 511 San Antonio Spurs @ 512 Memphis Grizzlies

Play #7

Memphis is now returning after a 4-game road trip that ended last Wednesday on an overtime game and with a major effort from them, as if we exclude Quincy Pondexter, all the other starters played at least 38 minutes each! The Grizzlies are now the team with the slowest pace factor in the league and the pace on their games is only getting slower and slower! Their last game at Golden State had a pace factor 78.63 - the slowest paced game on a NBA game this season! Their mindset is pounding down low is back and they had a volume of 27% on post up plays against the Warriors! Memphis was able to beat Golden State on overtime, who was missing Stephen Curry due to a concussion. With the Warriors having to start Andre Iguodala at the PG position, the Grizzlies forced the Warriors into a super slow paced game and that paid off at the end.

This isn't a good spot for Memphis, while San Antonio is coming from a bunch of easy wins where they faced the Knicks, Philadelphia, Washington on a back to back spot, Utah and Boston: a really easy schedule! Tim Duncan continues to struggle a lot on offense, but the Spurs keep winning their games due to their perimeter. However, San Antonio's defense continues to be an elite unit and their rim defense is excellent by allowing just 57.7% FG (#6 in the league)! Therefore, they will be a very tough obstacle to Memphis' offense. I believe this will be a very physical and slow paced contest, where both teams will defend better than attack. Therefore, I expect a super low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 513 Brooklyn Nets @ 514 Minnesota Timberwolves

Play #8

Brooklyn continues to struggle with injuries, with both Brook Lopez and Deron Williams being once again out for tonight. Therefore, their starting lineup will be formed by Kevin Garnett, Reggie Evans, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson and Shaun Livingston. The Nets are now playing at an incredible slow pace and even though I don't know if that's deliberate or not, the truth is that it is happening. The Nets have been defending well on transition lately and their "new" halfcourt style helps them in that. On the other hand, their pick and roll defense continues to struggle and even Kemba Walker who was struggling prior to that game had a great performance against them. 

Tonight's game will then be a contrast of styles, as Minnesota is the fastest team in the league right now. These fast paced games are starting to take a toll on the Wolves, who went from being #1 in the league on transition defense to allow 33 and 25 fast break points on their last two games, with that being the main reason why they lost against the Wizards and the Clippers. Having in account that the Nets are now playing on halfcourt, I doubt that Minnesota will allow a bunch of fast break points today. It won't be also easy for the Wolves to have an edge on post up plays tonight, as the Nets' defense are #4 in the league on this kind of play. I believe this game will be played on a slower than expected game, with both teams having some issues on offense. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 202,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 515 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 516 New Orleans Pelicans

Play #9

The Pelicans now with Ryan Anderson on the floor and with Tyreke Evans coming off the bench are a very dangerous team on offense. They averaged an offensive rating of 124.5 over their last three games and even though they faced Utah twice and Philadelphia, the truth is that they have now an elite outside shooter who is also great on pick n pops, while their guards are now quite aggressive as well. Then, Anthony Davis is playing at an insane level in both ends of the floor, so it's not a surprise to see the Pelicans scoring an average of 51.2 points in the paint over their last five games.

Cleveland is coming from a home loss against Washington and their offense is just too ugly to watch. Andrew Bynum is playing at center, but he's very far from his best level and the team doesn't involve him on the offensive process. The team ends up always shooting via an individual play of Kyrie Irving or Jarrett Jack and so, their pick and roll plays are now too predictable. Kyrie Irving will face Jrue Holiday tonight and that will be a tough matchup for Irving. The Pelicans are also a top ten team on defending pick and rolls, so I expect Cleveland's offense to struggle tonight.

On the other side, Cleveland's defense has been struggling a lot on protecting the rim, while their transition defense with Bynum on court is getting worse. Therefore, it's not a surprise to see the Cavaliers allowing an average of 18.3 fast break points per game over their last four games! This will be bad news for them against the Pelicans, who attack the basket a lot and have super aggressive guards on dribble penetrations. Therefore, I can only expect a blowout win for New Orleans tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 516 New Orleans Pelicans (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 517 Utah Jazz @ 518 Dallas Mavericks

Play #10

Gordon Hayward is Utah's key player right now, as he is by far the team's best playmaker and the only player who can feed the team's big men down low with quality. On tonight's game, the Jazz will have an edge with Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors against Dallas's frontcourt that is allowing 66% FG near the basket. Trey Burke made his NBA debut on the team's last game at New Orleans, where he played 12 minutes and showed some good moves. With Burke and Burks coming off the bench, the Jazz gains some consistency on offense that they didn't have so far on the league. By the way, Utah dished 27 assists against the Pelicans on their last game, a season high by far, after having just 16, 18 and 18 assists on their three previous games.

On the other side, Dallas is coming from a mega home game against Houston, where both offenses were flawless! Dallas has been great on outside shooting, but they are shooting well because they are creating a ton of open shots. Their pick and rolls with Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki have been great and Utah's defense is just #29 on pick and roll defense and #25 on spot up defense. However, I believe the Mavericks are on a clear letdown spot after a big win over their divisional rivals and Utah is now starting to play some half-decent basketball that should allow them to remain relatively competitive tonight against Dallas on a poor spot. Therefore, I'll be taking the Jazz in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Utah Jazz (+10,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 521 Golden State Warriors @ 522 Los Angeles Lakers

Play #11

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

I took Memphis and the Under on Golden State's last game, as the Warriors' lack of depth would be a problem for them on a grind out game against Memphis. To make things worse for the Warriors, the game went to overtime! Therefore, Golden State's starters in that game had to play at least 43 minutes each, something that shows the lack of options that Mark Jackson has on his roster right now. From the bench, only Marreese Speights and Draymond Green played considerable minutes with 13 and 14 minutes respectively. Therefore, I don't like the Warriors' spot for tonight, especially when they will face a much stronger team like Portland at home tomorrow!

On the other hand, the Lakers are on an excellent spot, as they had 4 days of rest prior to this game. So, the Lakers will have a huge physical edge tonight. Curiously, the Lakers were absolutely crushed on the first game between these two teams this season, in a game where the Lakers were on a back to back spot and got crushed by the rested Warriors, who were making their season debut at the time. This time around, the Lakers' offense is now showing better chemistry and they've shot 39-90 (43.3%) 3pts over their last four games! The Lakers continue to struggle on rebounding, but that won't be a big problem tonight, as Mark Jackson will use some small lineups as well in here, with Harrison Barnes playing considerable minutes at the PF position. The Lakers with a good perimeter offense and rested should make this game at least very competitive against a very tired Warriors team on a letdown mode. Therefore, I'll be taking the Lakers tonight on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 522 Los Angeles Lakers (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker