NBA - 505 Toronto Raptors @ 506 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #1
Charlotte is coming from a game last night in NY against the Knicks, where I had predicted that they would struggle on offense without Al Jefferson against a Knicks team that would be fired up after losing at home against Minnesota. Charlotte has been struggling to score near the basket against teams that have good interior defensive players like it happened at New Orleans, where they shot 10-25 FG near the basket. Besides that, Charlotte still relies a lot on pick and rolls with Kemba Walker and the Knicks' good defensive switching would be a tough matchup for Charlotte. What really happened during the game was that Tyson Chandler's injury early in the game made things much easier for the Bobcats. With Andrea Bargnani and Amare Stoudemire at the Center position, the Bobcats crushed them on offense. The Knicks' defense only had some success when Kenyon Martin was on the court. Charlotte shot 12-24 FG near the basket, but they got a lot of free throw attempts due to lack of opposition from the Knicks' interior defense. They shot just 3-12 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays with a poor 0.59 PPP, as they had predicted that they would struggle. However, they managed to have a good transition game against a horrible defensive positioning from the Knicks, while they also had a good outside shooting game as well. Charlotte's defense is much improved this season in comparison to last season and without Tyson Chandler, the Knicks didn't have a shot on the boards battle as well.
Toronto is coming from a home loss against Miami, in a game where the Heat used their offensive machine to shoot 50% FG and 43.5% 3pts, while dishing 31 assists. On the other hand, Toronto showed once again a very poor offensive flow that compensated that with a clear edge on offensive rebounding especially during the first half, where they had 11 offensive boards and a lot of free throw attempts! Toronto's coach Dwayne Casey made a poor decision in using small ball lineups against Miami and got crushed.
Regarding tonight's matchup, I believe that Dwayne Casey won't feel the need of putting Toronto with a small lineup on the floor, like he did against Miami last night. If we look at Toronto's offensive flow, it's important to take a look at Charlotte's defensive rebounding and free throw defense. The truth is that Charlotte has been excellent excellent in preventing fast break points, they have a 73% defensive rebound rate (#18 in the league) and they are also a decent team in preventing their opponents to go to the FT line with a 22.4% opposing FT rate (#12). So, I believe the improved Bobcats' defense will cause problems to Toronto's offense tonight.
On the other side, Charlotte will continue playing without Al Jefferson, something that keeps the pressure on Charlotte's guards to score. Yesterday Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson played 35 and 36 minutes respectively on a tough game, so things will be even tougher for them tonight on a back to back spot. Toronto has also been a good transition defense this season, so this game won't have a lot of easy points being scored. I expect a half court game in here, with Kyle Lowry doing a nice job on guarding Kemba Walker, so I believe the Bobcats' offense will struggle tonight, especially after their effort last night. I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 507 Washington Wizards @ 508 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #2
This will be the second game of a series between two teams this season and so, Washington will not only try to win for the first time this season, as they will also have a revenge angle tonight, as they lost to the Sixers at home when they were a 10-points favorite. That game was lost due to Washington's underestimating Philadelphia. They led the game, but then they screwed themselves with a poor run in the fourth quarter that made them collapse mentally. That game had a ridiculous number of fast break points, with Philadelphia scoring 20 fast break points and Washington 34 points! If we look at mysynergy numbers, Philadelphia shot 13-25 FG on transitions for a huge 27% volume, while Washington shot 15-24 FG for an equally impressive 23% volume! I don't think these huge numbers will be repeated tonight, especially as the Wizards will be more focused on defense this time around. Washington also allowed an absolutely ridiculous 74 points in the paint in that first game, with Philadelphia shooting 30-35 FG at the rim! Not gonna happen tonight!
Philadelphia got a wake up call on their last game against Golden State. The surprise effect is gone and even though the Warriors' have a subpar defense, Philadelphia shot just 35.2% FG with 5-25 3pts, while dishing just 19 assists. Washington will be more focused on transition defense tonight and in closing the paint as well. Philadelphia will then struggle to score due to their little talent on perimeter shooting. It seems like Nene Hilario will play tonight, so Washington will have more depth on the frontcourt to stop Philadelphia in here. Washington's coach Randy Witmman said it all about what they are going to do on defense tonight:
Question: What was the deal with those 74 points in the paint scored by the 76ers in D.C. last Friday?
Randy Wittman: If we don’t do better than that, alright, if it’s more than 74, then we’re going to be in trouble. So yea, that’s got to be the number one factor of defending off the dribble and trying to stay out of rotations because of being beat off the dribble. They didn’t throw it to the post-up guys. It was either offensive rebounds, fast-break layups, or getting it in from the perimeter from penetration, so that’s going to be important.
Washington will have a decent inside punch with Marcin Gortat and Nene Hilario playing together, while John Wall will be super fired up for the matchup against the rookie sensation Michael Carter-Williams. I expect a big effort from the Wizards tonight and so, I like them in here to pick up their first win of the season.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Washington Wizards (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Utah Jazz @ 510 Boston Celtics
Play #3
It's already known that Utah doesn't have a lot of offensive talent on the perimeter. So, it's not surprising that they shot 5-17, 4-22 and 4-18 3pts on their last three games, as they are really weak on shooting treys, excluding Gordon Hayward. Their strength is on the frontcourt and on their ability to grab offensive rebounds and score second chance points. Yesterday against Brooklyn's super big lineup, who was smart in packing the paint, Utah's offense struggled badly to score down low, ending the game with just 26 points in the paint and a ridiculous 7-22 FG near the basket! Brooklyn had merit in that by being a super tough matchup for the Jazz. On the other side, Utah's frontcourt was pounded by Brook Lopez who crushed them with 10-13 FG, 7-9 FT and 27 points in just 25 minutes! The good news is that this blowout win of the Nets allowed Utah to rest their key players for tonight's game at Boston.
So, it's important to know how Boston's interior defense has been playing regarding paint defense and defensive rebounding. The best news for Utah is that the Celtics are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league so far with a very poor 66.1% defensive rebound rate! Their opponents are averaging 15 offensive rebounds per game against them and so, the Jazz will have plenty of second chance points tonight. Boston is allowing 44.5 points in the paint this season and if we look at their frontcourt formed by Faverani, Bass, Olynyk and Sullinger, I believe that Utah with Kanter and Favors will have a mega edge on this area tonight. On the other side, Boston's offense has been struggling a lot due to their lack of talent. This is why they had just 15, 13, 15 and 14 assists on their first four games of the season! If we exclude their game against Milwaukee, Boston scored very few points in the paint, while their outside shooting isn't good at all as well. This line of five points is too high for Utah, as even though the Jazz are on a back to back spot tonight, Utah didn't make a big effort yesterday. So, their edge on rebounding and frontcourt will make this game at least quite competitive. Therefore, I'll be taking Utah in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Utah Jazz (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 511 New Orleans Pelicans @ 512 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #4
Memphis is coming from a home win over Boston last Monday, where they toyed the whole game, without showing a lot of effort. In fact, they were down 74-80 with just 7:16 left in the game, just to close the game with a 21-8 run to get the win. The impressive thing is that all Celtics starts had negative team +/-, while the Grizzlies outscored by Celtics by 17 points when Zach Randolph and Tony Allen were on the court, so the game was only close because Memphis rotated the team a lot during the game. The only negative area that I can mention about Memphis is the high number of turnovers, as they committed 20, 18 and 19 turnovers over the last three games. They are committing a lot of turnovers while trying to make post ups, as their opponents are completely packing the paint when Memphis has their starters on the floor, as they have little outside shooting skills.
New Orleans is coming from a home loss against Phoenix last night. During the first 30 minutes of the game, the Pelicans looked good by holding the Suns to just 50 points scored, while leading the game by 10 points. Both our picks looked good at that moment as well. But then, the Pelicans stopped playing and Phoenix shot 7-10 3pts over the last six minutes of the third quarter! Phoenix ended the game with 11-18 FG on transitions for a nice 1.19 PPP and 20 fast break points, while destroying the Pelicans' packed defense with 12-25 (48%) 3pts! It's always tough to see guys like Gerald Green shooting 6-10 3pts or the Morris brothers shooting 3-5 3pts! New Orleans was decent on offense with 10-18 3pts and 24 fast break points, but their two best players, Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, shot a combined of 6-21 FG!
When I look at tonight's matchup, all the problems that New Orleans had yesterday in defending the perimeter and transition plays will be mostly gone against Memphis's offense that lacks shooters to expose the Pelicans: 6-18, 3-16 and 5-15 3pts on their last three games! On their four games already played, the Pelicans lost three of them mostly because of the treys allowed. Indiana shot 10-23 3pts, Orlando 11-22 3pts and yesterday Phoenix shot 12-25 3pts! Their only win was against Charlotte, as the Bobcats shot 3-21 3pts and were limited to just 84 points. Memphis's poor outside shooting will then allow a defensive bounce back from New Orleans tonight. On the other side, the Pelicans' offense will struggle tonight. Both Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon will have tough matchups against Mike Conley and Tony Allen, while even Anthony Davis is likely to struggle against the Grizzlies' powerful frontcourt as well. Memphis' transition defense has been ridiculously bad by being last in the league on PPP allowed and #27 on fast break points allowed with 19.5 points allowed, but I believe that will change very quickly. I expect this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 513 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 514 Milwaukee Bucks
Plays #5 & 6
Milwaukee has been struggling a lot this season on defensive rebounding due to Larry Sanders's inconsistency. They allowed 18 offensive boards on each of their last two games! In fact, they had 48.2, 45.2 and 38.3 rebound rates on their last three games! Larry Sanders is banged up with a hand injury and he has been poor on both ends of the floor, as he looks lost on Larry Drew's new team system. Ersan Ilyasova is questionable for tonight and this might be a problem for Milwaukee, as Cleveland is a good rebounding team with Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson. The Cavaliers only had a poor rebounding game at Indiana on a back to back spot, but on their other three games, they had double digits on offensive rebounds!
The Bucks' injuries on the backcourt are forcing rookie Nate Wolters to play big minutes and he has been showing good playmaking skills, but he will struggle defensively tonight. Wolters has faced until now Raymond Felton, Avery Bradley and Kyle Lowry, three opponents that aren't half as dangerous as Kyrie Irving is. Cleveland's offense is far from being oiled right now and they keep living from pick and rolls and transitions, however they will have a good edge on these plays over Nate Wolters, Gary Neal and O.J. Mayo. On the other side, Cleveland's perimeter defense and especially their transition defense keep being subpar. Minnesota pounded them with 30 fast break points on their last game. Milwaukee is trying to use an up tempo style on their games, so I expect a fast paced game in here with both teams' defensive flaws being well explored. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. As I believe Cleveland will have a clear edge on rebounding and also down the stretch with Kyrie Irving leading the way, I'll be taking the Cavaliers in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 189,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Cleveland Cavaliers (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 515 Golden State Warriors @ 516 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #7
We have on this matchup two of the most uptempo teams in the league so far: Golden State is #3 and Minnesota #5. So, it's clear that this game will be played at a fast pace. Looking at the matchups, this will clearly favor both offenses. Minnesota's perimeter defense excluding Ricky Rubio will be weak all season long due to the characteristics of players like Kevin Martin, J.J. Barea, Corey Brewer and Derrick Williams. The Wolves may be at the top of the league with just 29.2% 3pts allowed, but they faced Oklahoma City (shooting 22.1%, #30 this season), the NY Knicks (29.9% 3pts, #22) and Cleveland (26.6% 3pts, #26). Now that they will face Golden State that is #2 in the league with 46.9% 3pts and with 13.3 treys made per game, things will be very different.
On the other side, Minnesota will also have some big edges as well. Golden State have sent their opponents to the FT line 33 times per game so far on this season and the Wolves are one of the best teams in drawing fouls with 32.2 per game (#4 in the league), so Minnesota will have plenty of FT attempts tonight. The Warriors are also turning the ball a lot and this allows their opponents to score fast break points (almost 19 fast break points per game!). Minnesota with Ricky Rubio leading the team can be deadly on transition by scoring 22 fast break points per game so far in the league. Therefore, I expect a very high scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 208,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 517 Phoenix Suns @ 518 San Antonio Spurs
Play #8
Phoenix is coming from a nice win at New Orleans last night, where they rotated the team well with P.J. Tucker playing the most time with "just" 35 minutes. On the other side, San Antonio defeated Denver on the road last night, where all their starters excluding Danny Green had negative team +/- points! I believe this is a really poor spot for the Spurs. They are coming from a game at Denver last night and they will now host a lowly team as huge favorites. The letdown seems inevitable. The ironic is that it was the Spurs' bench that allowed them to get the win yesterday, even though they didn't have great offensive numbers. The bench won them the game but via defense, as seen by the 16 points that the Nuggets scored during the fourth quarter.
I believe that Phoenix will have the edge on boards in here, especially because Coach Popovich will limit Tim Duncan's limited and the Spurs with a small lineup won't have a chance on rebounding. The Suns' offense are averaging 20.1% of volume on transitions, while being also effective on pick and roll ball handler plays and spot ups. San Antonio's defense has been great on transition defense with just 9.3 fast break points allowed per game, but their 3pts defense has been poor. Phoenix has Channing Frye that will be a tough matchup for Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter, as he is a frontcourt player that shoots well from the outside. On the other hand, Phoenix's defense has been a nice surprise so far on this season. They are protecting well the basket and San Antonio will have problems against them, especially as the Spurs are on a poor spot and their effort is generally questionable on this kind of poor spots. They will host the Warriors on a big game after this game and so, I really believe that Phoenix will make things competitive tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Suns in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Phoenix Suns (+13,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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