NBA - 701 Milwaukee Bucks @ 702 Indiana Pacers
Play #1
Milwaukee is currently dealing with a lot of injuries, so much that it's possible that they will have to start the following lineup: Zaza Pachulia, Ekpe Udoh, Kris Middleton, O.J. Mayo and Nate Wolters. So many injury problems in Milwaukee will in my opinion lead to a very good game from Indiana's offense. The Pacers have been great on offense over their last two with 110 and 113 offensive ratings, while having 24/13 and 25/13 A/TO ratios! Their perimeter has been excellent, with Paul George, Lance Stephenson and George Hill dominating the Grizzlies! The only area where Indiana's offense wasn't great was down low with 38 points in the paint on each of their last two games, while having subpar shooting numbers. However, they faced Brooklyn and Memphis, two good interior defenses, while they will face a depleted Bucks frontcourt tonight. Therefore, I believe Indiana will have a huge offensive game tonight, as Milwaukee's guards won't be able to handle Indiana's guards, something that will give a lot of space to the Pacers' frontcourt players who won't have problems in scoring a bunch of easy points down low tonight.
On the other hand, Milwaukee will have to base their offense on long range shooting, especially via their two main perimeter shooters: O.J. Mayo and Gary Neal. Indiana is coming from some tough games and considering the fact that they will have a huge offensive game tonight, they won't have to make a big effort on defense, something that will allow Milwaukee to score a respectable amount of points as well. Therefore, I believe this game will be a relatively high scoring contest, especially due to Indiana's big offensive game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 703 Chicago Bulls @ 704 Toronto Raptors
Play #2
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
It's incredible how Toronto scored 103 points at Memphis, while having just 14 assists! The way they scored these numbers isn't sustainable for the future: just 24 points in the paint, with 8-21 FG near the basket, little offensive flow and just a bunch of contested shots made with 6-14 FG from 16-23 feet and 8-15 treys! There was a lot of demerit from Memphis's perimeter defense who couldn't defend without fouling. This is why Toronto shot 33-39 FT! The area where the Raptors were really good again was on defense, something that combined with a rare efficient game on offense from both Rudy Gay (8-18 FG) and DeMar DeRozan (7-13 FG) allowed them to get a nice road win at Memphis.
The Raptors will now come back home to face the Bulls. This isn't an easy matchup for the Raptors' offense, as Chicago has Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler to defend Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan respectively. Just like Toronto struggled to score down low against Memphis, the same should happen tonight against Chicago's defense that is just allowing an impressive 52.2% FG near the basket! With Derrick Rose on court, the Bulls are having subpar numbers. Numbers don't lie and when Rose is assuming the team's offense, he isn't being sharp enough to solve things. With Hinrich playing and with Rose out of tonight's game, I expect Chicago to have a sharper ball movement tonight. I expect Chicago to use their much better spot for tonight to get the win in here, so I'll be taking them tonight on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 703 Chicago Bulls (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Plays #3 & 4
Boston is coming from a home loss against Charlotte, where Al Jefferson showed that he is back with a nice 8-17 FG, 6-6 FT, 22 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assists. In fact, Charlotte didn't win by a bigger margin as their perimeter shooting was poor with 6-21 FG and 3-12 3pts. They were also missing Josh McRoberts, who helps the team a lot on offense with his good court vision. Boston's offense struggled because Charlotte's defense packed the paint and prevented the Celtics from scoring at the rim (11-21 FG)! Boston's defense used the same tactic and so, both teams were forced to attempt a lot of long range shots, where they generally struggle and this game was no exception. The difference was that Charlotte had Al Jefferson down low, while they were also much more aggressive with 26-30 FT, while Boston had just 18-25 FT.
Portland is coming from a tough home win against Phoenix. It was the second game of the season between these two teams and that was visible, as both teams did their homework on how to stop the opposing offenses! The Suns double teamed LaMarcus Aldridge, while keeping three men zoning to cover any passing outlets. This resulted in Aldridge shooting just 1-7 FG on the first half, while Portland shot just 1-4 3pts during the first half, something incredible for one of the best long range shooting teams in the league! Phoenix with a very quick perimeter managed to make Portland struggle on their pick and rolls and spot ups, while LaMarcus Aldrdige ended the game with 5-19 FG! On the other end, the Blazers' defense packed the paint to stop Miles Plumlee to score down low or the Suns' quick guards from penetrating easily into the basket. Therefore, Phoenix had to rely on turnovers and fast break points to score. They ended the game with 20 fast break points, but they weren't efficient on transitions with just 6-15 FG! Portland's packed defense resulted as Phoenix shot just 18-36 FG at the rim!
The good news for Portland tonight is that Boston and Phoenix have a similar playing style: they like to use their guards to attack the basket on dribble penetrations. Of course Portland will have some defensive problems as they aren't a good interior defense. The Blazers' defense was built to stop 3pts shooters, but Boston is one of the teams in the league that less treys attempts per game, so they will pack the paint on defense once again tonight. On the other hand, Portland's offense will give Boston's defense a much tougher matchup than Charlotte gave them. First of all, LaMarcus Aldridge will pound Boston down low like Al Jefferson did last Wednesday. Then, while Charlotte's offense couldn't shoot a basket from long range, that won't happen with Portland who is a good outside shooting team. Boston's defense has been playing great, but they haven't faced a lot of good jump shooting teams so far in the league. They faced only Orlando and Miami as good jump shooting teams and they allowed 105 and 110 points in those games respectively. I believe Portland will show that they are the better team in here to get a comfortable win on a high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Blazers and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Portland Trailblazers (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Charlotte Bobcats @ 710 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #5
Cleveland is coming from a massive loss at Minnesota last Wednesday. Their offense continues to be terrible, with poor floor spacing and they often get into the end of the shotclock without knowing what to do with the ball. Their 18 assists say it all about their lack of offensive flow. The disaster wasn't even worse because Kyrie Irving actually made some tough shots on an 8-17 FG performance. But when Irving has 2 assists and 3 turnovers, the offense has to struggle. Cleveland's poor offense was one of the main reasons why Minnesota was so good on offense. The Cavaliers couldn't grab offensive rebounds and as soon as Minnesota would grab the defensive rebounding, they would run in transition thanks to some amazing passes from Ricky Rubio. This is why the Wolves ended the game with 29 fast break points scored and 10-15 FG in transitions. Besides that, the Wolves were completely red hot from the outside, with Corey Brewer shooting 5-5 3pts, Robbie Hummel 2-4 3pts and even Ricky Rubio shot 1-1 3pts! To add insult to injury, Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic also pounded the Cavaliers down low big time!
This bad offense from Cleveland wasn't only seen on their last game. This is a trend from the whole season so far. They run a lot of pick and rolls, but with little movement off the ball. Thanks to this, they can't create good looks from the outside and so, they are just shooting 34.1% 3pts. Charlotte's defense has been an underrated unit on this early season and they have as their main strength preventing the opposing guards from attacking and scoring near the basket. This is exactly what Cleveland likes to do on offense! This is also why Cleveland struggled and lost at Charlotte early in the season. On the other hand, Charlotte's offense might struggle in here as well, as they need Al Jefferson at 100% to stop being such a perimeter oriented offense and he is banged up and questionable for tonight. Therefore, I expect much offenses to struggle in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NBA - 711 Dallas Mavericks @ 712 Miami Heat
Plays #6 & 7
Both teams are on a good spot for tonight, as they had two days off to rest and prepare for this game. Dallas's offense is built around pick and rolls as expected with Jose Calderon and Monta Ellis doing them with Dirk Nowitzki. In fact, the Mavs are #2 in the league on volume of pick and roll ball handler plays and also on pick and roll roll man. Dallas has a 30% volume on the combination of both kinds of pick and rolls on their offense! However, Miami's defense is #1 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense and #9 on pick and roll roll man defense, so Dallas's offense will have in the Heat's high-pressuring defense a very tough opponent. Miami's only problem on defense is near the basket, but Dallas is a jump shooting team and so, the Heat won't see their defensive weakness being exposed tonight.
On the other hand, the Mavs' interior defense is also quite acceptable with just 63.6% FG allowed near the basket. The problem with Dallas's defense is indeed their spot up defense, with several errors making the wrong rotations, leaving someone wide open. This is extremely dangerous to do against an offense like Miami's. Dallas's defensive problems aren't a surprise, as for a team that starts on their lineup Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon at the same time, no matter how good their head coach is, Dallas will eventually struggle a bit on defense on pretty much every game they play. Dallas is coming from a home win against Washington in a game that had a slower than expected pace, as Rick Carlisle didn't want to push the pace against a quick, young and athletic opponent like the Wizards. We can believe Dallas will try to slow it down in here as well, as they would have absolutely no chance against Miami on a super fast paced game. However, Miami is the much better team in here on a slow or fast paced game and I expect them to take advantage of their edges on both offense and defense to pick up a double digits win tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat tonight. As I expect this game to be not as fast as most people would expect, while Dallas's offense will struggle to be efficient on the pick and rolls against Miami's elite defense, I believe this game will be a relatively low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 205,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Miami Heat (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 713 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 714 Denver Nuggets
Play #8
Denver is coming from a home win against the Lakers, but they weren't convincing at all in that win. Their perimeter shooting was poor as usual, with only Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler being a bit more consistent on long range shooting. What saved the Nuggets were their 23 offensive rebounds, as even their decision to pound the Lakers down low didn't work greatly, as they shot just 19-37 (51.4%) FG at the rim and 9-19 FG from 4-9 feet. Considering that they struggled to be effective in the paint against a Lakers undersized team that was on a back to back spot, these aren't good news when they will be facing a much tougher Minnesota team tonight.
First of all, Minnesota is #1 in the league on transition defense, so Denver won't be able to score their usual fast break points and that's going to be a massive problem for them tonight, as their outside shooting is poor, their offense on half court is also very unimaginative, so they generally need to be effective down low and on transition to have good offensive games. As that won't likely happen tonight, I believe Denver will struggle on offense in here. On the other side, I expect Minnesota's offense to suffer a letdown tonight, after a massive offensive game at home against Cleveland last Wednesday. Minnesota was completely "in the zone" in that game, with Corey Brewer shooting 5-5 3pts and Robbie Hummel on his first start ever shooting 2-4 3pts! Even Ricky Rubio shot 1-1 3pts! No way they will have two back to back performances like this! Denver's transition defense was ridiculous at Phoenix where they allowed 37 fast break points to the Suns. Their head coach Brian Shaw was so furious at his team that Denver bounced back to allow just 8 and 5 fast break points on their last two games. I also believe that Denver's athletic frontcourt will cause problems to the Wolves' offense, as when they aren't able to put the ball with quality down low, they struggle to generate any kind of offensive flow. Therefore, I believe we have the right spot and matchup to take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 715 Brooklyn Nets @ 716 Phoenix Suns
Play #9
Brooklyn's offense is getting more and more similar to Boston's last season offense and these aren't good news for them! They managed to create some damage down low on their last game at Sacramento with 46 points in the paint scored, while shooting 10-16 FG at the rim and 12-30 FG from 4-9 feet! The reason why they struggled so much on shooting from the 4-9 feet area was that Sacramento packed the paint on defense to prevent the Nets to score in the painted area. This is exactly what Phoenix's defense will do in here as well. The Suns are #4 in the league in post up defense and their paint defense is indeed good, as their players are quick on rotations and they close the paint extremely well. This is why they are allowing just 52.5% FG near the basket so far in the league! Brooklyn's best offensive games this season were against Miami, Utah and Washington. Of course these three teams are struggling on defending near the basket with 65% FG, 63.7% FG and 70% FG allowed so far in the league. With Phoenix having a much better interior defense, I expect Brooklyn's offense to struggle once again tonight.
On the other side, I also expect Phoenix to struggle on offense, especially if their perimeter shooting struggles big time. Brooklyn's size is a tough obstacle for Phoenix's guards to penetrate into the basket. The Nets' perimeter shooting hasn't been great with 44.6% FG from 16-23 feet and 38.1% 3pts allowed, but I don't believe Phoenix will have a huge perimeter shooting game tonight, as they are just shooting 35.8% 3pts this season. The Suns need to score fast break points to be effective on offense, but Brooklyn's transition defense isn't bad at all with just 11.6 fast break points allowed per game (#12 in the league). Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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