Play #1
Atlanta is coming from a surprising home loss against Boston. The Hawks had a double digits lead going into the fourth quarter, with Al Horford dominating, while Jeff Teague was struggling given Avery Bradley's good defense. On the other hand, Boston's offense was having a brick fest. Then, the fourth quarter arrived and Atlanta started well the quarter but then putting the second unit on the floor with Louis Williams leading the offense was a terrible idea. Boston got closer on the scoreboard and with Atlanta's starting lineup back on the floor, they decided to keep shooting jumpers and more jumpers, in such a way that Boston used a zone defense to force Atlanta to shoot from even further, something that made Atlanta miss even more shots! On the other hand, Boston got aggressive on the offensive end by attacking the rim and even though they kept shooting a lot of bricks, the free throws they got via aggressiveness were the key!
"I think the free-throw line and the aggressiveness of Boston in the fourth quarter was the difference in the game" Atlanta's coach Mike Budenholzer said. "For the game it’s 31-12 from the free-throw line. That’s going to make it a difficult game to win. I think we need to learn from that and be more aggressive and get to the paint, get the basket, get to the free-throw line. It’s a tough lesson to learn. It’s a tough way to learn it."
On their recent stretch of the games, Atlanta has been showing some problems on offense that are justified by their bad spot. In fact, their last game against the Celtics was their fourth game in five days and the Hawks don't have a lot of depth to defend themselves from these spots. They also faced Detroit twice and it wasn't easy for Atlanta to have good offensive games against such a big frontcourt, while Jeff Teague was limited by tiredness on back to back games. The good news is that Atlanta will now be rested to face Orlando tonight and Jeff Teague will come from facing a top defender like Avery Bradley into a poor defender like Jameer Nelson.
Orlando is now playing with a small lineup, so Atlanta with their own undersized lineup won't have problems in matching them. After a good start of the season, the Magic's defense was sent back to Earth while facing potent offensive teams. This is why they allowed more than 100 points in six of their last seven games! On the other side, Atlanta's defense is also far from being an elite unit, as they are allowing too many points near the basket, something understandable given their undersized frontcourt formed by Al Horford and Paul Millsap.
These two teams have already faced each other this season and the game ended with 198 points, even though both teams had subpar offensive performances. This was due the fast pace that the game had that compensated the poor efficiency. I believe tonight's game will have a similar pace, while both offenses will look better tonight. The Magic were on a back to back spot in that game and they committed 19 turnovers and shot 10-18 FT! On the other side, Atlanta didn't have any problem in creating easy shots, as they ended that game with 36 assists! Dennis Schroder was at the time Atlanta's main backup guard and he had an awful 0-8 FG game. He has recently left the rotation and was replaced by Louis Williams, who will give an offensive boost to the team coming off the bench. On the other side, Orlando was starting Jason Maxiell at the time and he has been since replaced by Victor Oladipo, who gives more speed to the lineup, while Glen Davis is also now playing. This makes me believe that this game will have more points than the first game played between these two teams and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 199,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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