Play #1
Indiana is coming from a fun game against Philadelphia, where they won without making a big effort. This was by far Indiana's fastest paced game, mostly thanks to Philadelphia's style, but Indiana didn't have a problem with that at all. However, Indiana's defense still did a good job in allowing just 15-38 (39.5%) FG at the rim, while stopping Philadelphia's transitions as well. The Sixers still scored 19 fast break points, but with a poor efficiency of 5-18 FG! Offensively, Indiana had an easy task with 38 FT attempts, while their starting lineup also shot well with 31-57 (54%) FG!
Minnesota played at Houston on their last game, while playing their fourth game in five nights. So, the Rockets didn't have to do a lot to win the game. With James Harden out, Aaron Brooks entered into God like mode with 10-14 FG and 6-7 3pts with 26 points in 25 minutes! Houston shot 17-31 3pts and so, they didn't have a problem in winning this contest. Minnesota managed to keep things interesting due to Houston's 24 turnovers that resulted in 23 fast break points from Minnesota!
Regarding tonight's game, Indiana is the better team, but Minnesota should offer a tough matchup for them lately. Minnesota's defense has been struggling to stop the opposing perimeter offense, especially regarding 3pts shooting. However, Indiana is very inconsistent on this area with 35-116 (30%) 3pts on their last six games, so the Wolves should be fine on this area tonight. Minnesota's post up defense is good as they are #7 in the league while allowing 0.76 PPP, so they should limit Indiana's big men down low tonight. On the other hand, Indiana has been struggling to get back into defense where they are "just" #12 in the league on this area, while they indeed struggle on pick and roll ball handler defense, where their strategy is to allow their opponents to shoot from the 16-23 feet area. The fact that Kevin Love is a great outside shooting will force David West to get out of his comfort zone and so, I believe Minnesota will be a dangerous matchup for Indiana tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Wolves in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Minnesota Timberwolves (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 707 Phoenix Suns @ 708 Miami Heat
Play #2
Phoenix grabbed a solid win yesterday at Orlando, where they were super efficient on offense with 25 assists and just 9 turnovers! As expected, Goran Dragic crushed Jameer Nelson on pick and rolls and ended the game with 10-17 FG, while having a brilliant 13 assists and 0 turnovers! The Suns also had an excellent outside shooting game with 10-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 11-29 3pts! On the other hand, Orlando dominated on the inside with Nikola Vucevic and Andrew Nicholson, while having a decent outside shooting game as well.
The Suns will now play a much tougher game at Miami, where they won't have the same freedom on the ball handler that they had yesterday. Phoenix's pick and roll game didn't feel any pressure yesterday and so, they committed just 9 turnovers. Orlando is #26 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense and now the Suns will face the best team in the league on this area! The good news is that Phoenix is #1 in the league on transition offense with a mega volume and Miami has been super lazy in getting back into defense this season. In fact, the Heat are indeed last in the league on transition defense, while allowing 1.26 PPP! Miami is also lazy on perimeter defense, something that will help Phoenix's quality spot up game.
On the other side, Miami's offense is of course a quality unit and Phoenix's defense has in stopping the opposing perimeter shooting their main focus. Therefore, they get crushed down low quite often, with 49 points in the paint per game allowed over the last 5 games! LeBron James's post ups will be a nightmare for the Suns to defend and of course, Miami's great offensive flow will crush Phoenix's defense. Miami is coming from a close win against Orlando, where their defense showed laziness on the perimeter. Miami wasn't able to get a good offensive game in that game due to a poor 6-25 3pts mark. I expect them to bounce back on this area and help turn this game into a high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Houston Rockets @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #3
Memphis is now without Marc Gasol, who got injured on the team's last game against San Antonio. Without Marc Gasol, Kostas Koufos and Ed Davis will replace him and even though they aren't poor players, the truth is that they aren't All-Star caliber players like Gasol. Memphis's defense continue to struggle on rotating defensively and defending perimeter shots. This is why they keep being dead last in the league on spot up defense. San Antonio took advantage of that with 7-17 3pts! Therefore, it will be tough for the Grizzlies to defend a Houston team, whose offense is now excellent since Terrence Jones became the starter at the PF position. James Harden is out for tonight and he is a key guy, especially down the stretch, but Houston has been showing a great unselfish basketball without him and they seem fine to play without Harden right now.
Marc Gasol's absence will also be very important of Memphis's offense given his great ability to pass the ball and score down low. The Grizzlies' pick and rolls have been the key for their offense with Mike Conley, but the Rockets' pick and roll defense has been fine, especially with Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverley being a better defensive combo than Beverley with Harden. This will be a battle of styles, but Houston will have a clear edge on offense via spreading the floor and taking advantage of Memphis' poor perimeter defense. Therefore, I'll be taking the Rockets in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Houston Rockets (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 711 Denver Nuggets @ 712 Dallas Mavericks
Play #4
I don't see a big difference of quality between these two teams. Dallas will dominate from the outside, in the same way that Denver will dominate down low. The Mavericks surprised on the first game between these two teams last Saturday, as they were on a horrible spot, but they will made a huge comeback and even took the lead with two minutes to go! The reason for that was that they used a zone defense during the second half that completely surprised Denver's offense and made them turn into a jump shooting team. This is why they attempted 32 treys during that game!
Of course Dallas won't have the terrible spot that they had last Saturday, but on the other hand Denver will also be better prepared for Dallas's zone defense if they implement that once again tonight. I believe this will be a very close game like last Saturday's game was and therefore, I see good value on taking the Nuggets in here tonight. I'm taking Denver in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Denver Nuggets (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 713 New Orleans Pelicans @ 714 San Antonio Spurs
Play #5
San Antonio is rolling right now, but I believe the Pelicans will offer them a tough matchup in here tonight. Anthony Davis will have a huge physical edge over San Antonio's frontcourt, with Boris Diaw banged up and with Tim Duncan struggling early on the season. San Antonio has been playing a few games where they are allowing way too many points down low (52 points against Philadelphia, 54 against Utah and 52 against Memphis) and this should be also one of them. Tony Parker will also have problems tonight, as he will be guarded by Jrue Holiday, who is one of the best individual defenders in the league at the PG position.
As I expect the Pelicans to win the boards battle and with them also committing a low number of turnovers as it has been the norm this season, I believe the current blowout line is too high for a game like this one. New Orleans is a tough matchup for San Antonio and I expect them to run the Spurs close tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Pelicans in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 New Orleans Pelicans (+10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NBA - 715 Chicago Bulls @ 716 Utah Jazz
Play #6
Chicago got absolutely crushed yesterday at LA against the Clippers, as the team looked dead mentally after knowing that Derrick Rose was once again severely injured and that all their season aspirations went down the toilet once again. Then, the Clippers took advantage of that and used their great offense to absolutely crushed Chicago.
Things will be very different tonight. First of all, Chicago will bounce back and they will face the worst team in the league right now. The Jazz played at Oklahoma City last night and even though Russell Westbrook was out, Utah couldn't do a thing in that game and looked completely lost once again. Enes Kanter was removed from the starting lineup to be replaced by Marvin Williams of all people. This is a move that shows that not only the players are lost, as their coach is lost as well.
Therefore, I have little doubts that Chicago's frontcourt will eat Utah alive down low tonight and this is how the Bulls crushed the Jazz earlier on the season with 56 points in the paint, on a very easy 97-73 win for them. On the other hand, Trey Burke has returned to the team and he is still struggling with a sore finger, while Gordon Hayward who is supposed to be the team's best scorer is completely lacking confidence right now since a terrible performance at Dallas. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Chicago tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715 Chicago Bulls (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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