Play #1
Charlotte won their game at NY against the Knicks last Tuesday, where they took advantage of Tyson Chandler's injury early in the game to pound the Knicks down low with quick penetrations that sent the Bobcats a lot to the free throw line, as both Andrea Bargnani and Amare Stoudemire are poor defenders and couldn't stop the Bobcats' guards to penetrate into the basket. On the other hand, Charlotte struggled on pick and roll ball handler plays with just 3-12 FG and 0.59 PPP, as I had expected. However, the Knicks' defensive positioning was so poor that the Bobcats crushed them on transitions to get the win at the end.
On the following day, the Bobcats played at home against Toronto in a game where they should have easily won and not by just two points. The main reason for this short win was the terrible 17-30 FT from them! They also struggled on treys with 3-15 3pts and the Bobcats continue being too perimeter-oriented with Al Jefferson still sidelined. They construct well offensive plays (19-26 FG at the rim and 11-22 FG from 16-23 feet), but they are too predictable and have no confidence on their 3pts shooting. On defense, the Bobcats continue showing their improvements in comparison with last season by limiting very well the one-dimensional offense of the Raptors, led by the ball hogs DeMar DeRozan (5-16 FG) and Rudy Gay (8-21 FG).
So, tonight we have a rematch from last Tuesday when Charlotte defeated the Knicks at NY. With Tyson Chandler still out, the Knicks are bound to struggle on defense, however they held the Bobcats to just 38 points on the second half when Kenyon Martin replaced Amare Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani at the Center position. The Bobcats' overall offensive numbers on last Tuesday's game weren't that good with 42.3% FG, 12-24 FG at the rim and 17 assists, however they had 34-42 FT. So, I believe the Knicks on a nice spot tonight will be more successful in avoiding the Bobcats' average offense to pound them like they did it on the second half of last Tuesday's game. On the other hand, the Knicks will go small tonight, with Andrea Bargnani at Center, Carmelo Anthony at the PF position and Iman Shumpert as their SF. With the return of small lineup, I expect the Knicks offense to be more effective, while they should do a better defensive job tonight as well. Therefore, I expect the Knicks to get revenge from their loss last Tuesday with a solid win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 New York Knicks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Brooklyn Nets @ 510 Washington Wizards
Play #2
Washington's offense had a field day at Philadelphia on their last game. John Wall feels like fish on water on fast paced games and with that, Washington scored 28 fast break points and a nice 18-33 3pts! Philadelphia's interior defense also helped Marcin Gortat in having a nice 8-12 FG game! Washington's offense is quite perimeter-based, as they are #1 on 3pts attempts per game, but with Nene Hilario back, they have some inside scoring punch as well with Nene and Gortat. The Wizards will face a Nets team that has been struggling against quick opponents on the early season. Their loss at Cleveland was a clear example of that, but the best example of that was their loss at Orlando last Sunday, where the Magic had 7-17 3pts! Therefore, Washington will have a good edge on this area with John Wall and Bradley Beal. Their idea will definitely be to push the pace against such a veteran team like the Nets.
On the other side, Washington's frontcourt will struggle big time to defend Brook Lopez. Nene and Gortat have barely played together so far and if they could handle Philadelphia's poor interior game, the same won't happen tonight. I expect a relatively fast paced game in here, with Washington taking advantage of their backcourt speed edge, while Brooklyn will take advantage of their edge on the down low. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 511 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 512 Detroit Pistons
Play #3
Since Russell Westbrook returned, the Thunder are back into being a good team. They started the season with two games where they had 9 and 16 assists, but then with Westbrook back, they jumped into 20 and 28 assists! Oklahoma City has now their explosion back on offense, they attack the rim, they run in transition and they took advantage of all of that to pound Dallas with 27 fast break points, 14-16 FG on transitions and 25-36 FG near the basket! Russell Westbrook's return is also good for Kevin Durant and especially for Serge Ibaka, who is much more comfortable on being the team's third option on offense, as seen by the 8-10 FG, 17 points and 13 rebounds performance that he had against Dallas. Of course the Thunder will want to continue playing with this aggressive style and so, Detroit will struggle to stop them tonight. Detroit's slow frontcourt won't stop Westbrook and Durant, while the Pistons' backcourt defense is also very poor.
Detroit is coming from three games in a row where they faced teams that lack the Thunder's perimeter offense: Memphis, Boston and Indiana. The only game where they faced a quick team was against Washington and even though the Wizards lost that game, they scored 102 points and had a 111 offensive rating! The Pistons are also quite turnover prone (19, 20, 21 and 15 turnovers on their first four games) and this will allow Oklahoma City to use their transition game a lot today. On the other side, it's important to check how the Thunder will stop Detroit's inside game. Detroit has been winning the boards battle in all their games so far while scoring 53 points in the paint per game! Oklahoma City's defense struggled on their first two games of the season in terms of paint protection against Utah and Minnesota, but much better on their last two against Phoenix and Dallas. However, the Suns and the Mavs have close to no inside game, something that doesn't happen with the Pistons' good offensive frontcourt. I expect a fast paced game with both teams showing good offense and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 513 Utah Jazz @ 514 Chicago Bulls
Play #4
Utah is coming from a terrible loss at Boston, where they crushed the Celtics down low with 25-34 (73.5%) FG, but they were a disaster on the other areas. They can't make a trey (1-10 3pts) and they are super turnover prone, with 22 turnovers against the Celtics. Besides that, the Jazz's guards aren't good and so, they struggle in putting the ball down low on Enes Kanter or Derrick Favors. Therefore, I expect Utah's offense to struggle big time against Chicago tonight. The Jazz's only decent area on offense is their frontcourt that will face Chicago's great interior defense today that is allowing just 51.6% FG at the rim this season! Then, the only thing a team needs to stop Utah is to limit Gordon Hayward and the Bulls have Jimmy Butler and Luol Deng to do exactly that. Chicago's defense has only struggled this season on 3pts with 45.2% allowed, but Utah is the worst 3pts shooting team in the league with just 22.5% and they won't cause any issues to Chicago's perimeter defense struggles.
On the other side, the only good news that Chicago's offense has for tonight is that Utah has Jamaal Tinsley and John Lucas available for the PG position and so, either Derrick Rose has a big game tonight or he's doomed for the season as he won't have an easier matchup on offense than this one. Utah's pick and roll ball handler defense is last in the league with 0.99 PPP allowed and so, I believe that Chicago's offense will have a fine performance tonight. I believe that the Bulls' defense will absolutely shutdown the Jazz's terrible offense tonight and so, I'll be taking the Bulls in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 514 Chicago Bulls (-12) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 517 Los Angeles Lakers @ 518 New Orleans Pelicans
Plays #5 & 6
The Lakers are coming from a great win at Houston last night, on a game that had the incredibly fast pace of 105.4! The Lakers won the game by shooting treys after treys with 16-35 3pts, while they barely shot near the basket with just 9-20 FG! Houston tried to outgun the Lakers instead of being patient and using their superior talent. The result of that was a loss down the stretch. The Rockets attempted pretty much the same number of shots near the basket (27) and treys (28). If we combined that with the terrible 33-52 (63.5%) FT, this was why they ended up losing this game.
Things will be different tonight. With Ryan Anderson still out, the Pelicans are one of the teams in the league that less attempts treys per game. They attack the basket, with a lot of dribble penetration from Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans. Tonight they will have a great matchup to be effective in that against the slow footed Lakers. New Orleans has a lot of volume on pick and rolls plus transitions, the two areas where the Lakers' defense is generally terrible and will be even worse tonight on this poor physical spot for them. The Lakers will attempt a bunch of treys as usual and they might be a bit effective on that as New Orleans's defense generally struggles against this kind of offense as seen against Phoenix last Tuesday.
The Pelicans will certainly run tonight, as the Lakers are on a poor spot in here. New Orleans should have a great offensive game with their transitions and pick and rolls, while the Lakers won't be able to make this game close due to their poor defense, but they will still score their share of points via their outside game. Therefore, I expect a blowout win for the Pelicans on a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking both New Orleans and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Over 202,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 518 New Orleans Pelicans (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 523 Sacramento Kings @ 524 Portland Trailblazers
Play #7
This is the kind of game where Portland won't feel comfortable at all. They struggle against good opposing Centers and Point Guards, two positions where I believe Sacramento has players that will perform well tonight. PG Isiah Thomas has been playing really well this season, while Center DeMarcus Cousins is also very talented and he will fired up for tonight after his own Head Coach Michael Malone criticized his low-post defense after last Tuesday's loss against Atlanta. Portland's defense has been terrible on pick and rolls ball handler plays (#28), post ups (#28) and transitions (#25), so this should be a field day for Sacramento's offense that is #2 on pick and roll ball handler plays and #10 on transitions with 17.3 fast break points per game.
Portland's rebounding has been really poor on this early season (outrebounded in all their four games already played), while Sacramento is #9 on offensive rebound rate with 26.9%! Basically everything that the Kings' offense does best on offense is an area where Portland's defense struggles and this will of course benefit the Kings a lot in here. On the other side, Portland will have an edge with LaMarcus Aldrdige like Paul Millsap had on the Kings' last game, but while the Hawks had two stretch big men playing together, Portland won't have that, something that will help DeMarcus Cousins, who got frustrated while trying to stop Al Horford. I believe this game has everything to be a really close one and so, I'll be taking the Kings plus the points tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523 Sacramento Kings (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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